NC STATE vs WAKE FOREST Preview

Time: 7:00 pm
TV: ESPNU
Announcers: Tom Hart, Len Elmore

Wake has been off for a week since losing at Duke 83-63, their third straight loss. So the last time these two teams met was four weeks ago in Winston-Salem where the Deacons were able to win the Free Throw shooting contest 70-69. If you don’t remember, the trio of Brian Dorsey, Sean Hull, and Jamie Luckie proceeded to call 52 fouls sending Wake to the line for 39 FTA and the Pack for 31. You’ll also recall this was one of three games TJ Warren has fouled out of this weekend. Finally you may also remember the game winning layup by McIntyre where he took 3 HUUUGGGGEEEEE steps and wasn’t called for a travel.

Here’s a recap statistically of the game:

As you can see the Deacon’s shot the ball tremendously well but that should be expected if you’re going to be called for a foul just for looking at someone. I’ll be honest, I’ve never seen a game where a team took more FT attempts than FG attempts. The ACC must have been so proud for identifying all those tendencies. Wake didn’t disappoint in their inability to grab offensive rebounds, which is saying a lot against this Pack squad.

Projected Starters:
Madison Jones, Coron Williams, Travis McKie, A.W. Adala Moto, and Devin Thomas.

Codi Miller-McIntyre is suffering from an ankle injury that sidelined him for the second half of the Georgia Tech game and all of the Duke game. No word yet on if he’ll be playing tonight but the less the Pack sees of him the better. Maybe that bum ankle can prevent him running from the 3pt line for a layup without dribbling???

Since most of the players on Wake have played at least a couple of games against NC State I thought I’d take a look at how they have performed and who we should be on the lookout for the most.

I’d like to see Thomas’ numbers against every other team in the ACC but I’m guessing he’s salivating knowing State is next up. Just look at that Offensive Rating, 177!!! That is beyond belief for a guy who is so heavily used in those games.

Key No. 1 —- Someone tell Thomas the game is Wednesday night.

The Pack had zero answers for The Dash last game and hopefully he’s at best 50% for this game, otherwise it’s going to be another long night watching the Pack’s PG’s getting abused. Adala Moto was last games “insert unknown player’s name here who has a career game against the Pack”. A lot of that was due to making 11-14 FT’s. McKie’s and Cavanaugh’s numbers are weighted down due to their inability to not turn the ball over.

Series Notes
Overall: NC State leads 137-101
@NC State: State 57-23 (10-4 @PNC, 8 straight wins @PNC)

Magic Number: 65
NC State is 14-3 when they score 65 or more points.
Wake Forest is 13-3 when they score 65 or more points.

Now’s the time to weep
I thought I’d take a look at these two teams and see how they are faring in just conference play this season. It’s not pretty if you’re a Pack fan. Welcome to 2014 where NC State = Wake Forest.

As you can see there isn’t any difference between NC State and Wake Forest this season except Wake goes to the Free Throw line more and sends their opponents there more as well. Some real stinkers against UVA, Duke, and UNC have inflated the bad defensive numbers for the Pack in such a small sample size but doesn’t that say a lot as well.

We all want the Pack to be on the right side of the Bubble come Selection Sunday but if they don’t find another gear improve in several of these areas on both sides of the ball, then I don’t see how they will be able to do the minimum and beat Wake, Clemson, VT, Miami, and BC.

Road Warriors???
Wake Forest under Jeff Bzdelik is a staggering 2-28 on the road in the ACC. Who have they beaten during this amazing run of futility? Boston College (9-22, 4-12) in 2011/12 and Virginia Tech (8-15, 1-10) this year, 2013/14. Wake is currently 1-4 in ACC Road games this season and State is 3-2 in ACC Home games.

So what are they doing to accomplish this feat? Let’s take a look at how they are doing in the losses:


Wake Forest stats for ACC road losses from 2011-Present


Wake Forest stats for ACC road losses from 2011-Present (Opponents results)

It’s pretty obvious, WF just isn’t competitive on the road and the biggest culprit is the fact they can’t hit water if they feel out of a boat.

Here’s a side by side comparison of the averages between the 28 losses and the 2 wins.

As you can see the Deacons aren’t doing a whole lot different between their wins and losses except getting the ball in the basket more and playing horrible teams who can’t shoot.

So what does all this mean?

Well, for one thing no one should ever lose to Wake on their Home court and talk about NCAA Tournament in the same season. Second, be on the lookout early on to how well both teams are shooting the ball.

Predictor:
KenPom likes NC State by 6, so does Vegas. Personally I think on a neutral court this game is a toss up but with the game being in Raleigh I’m going with KP and Vegas.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home Forums NC STATE vs WAKE FOREST Preview

This topic contains 218 replies, has 31 voices, and was last updated by  44rules 10 months, 1 week ago.

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  • #40261

    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    Time: 7:00 pm TV: ESPNU Announcers: Tom Hart, Len Elmore Wake has been off for a week since losing at Duke 83-63, their third straight loss. So the la
    [See the full post at: NC STATE vs WAKE FOREST Preview]

    #40262

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Woohoo, I am actually, seriously looking forward to two hours of Len Elmore’s “grumpy old man” routine. And I hope the game is less hideously played than the first Pack/Deacs clash (where both teams deserved to lose – just putrid basketball all around).

    #40264

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I hope the game is less hideously played

    I always knew that BJD was an optimist at heart.

    #40265

    redcanine
    Participant

    Pregame: Mt. Dew and alpine skiing.
    Halftime: Budweiser & women’s curling.
    Post Game: Wild Turkey and Westminster Dog Show

    #40266

    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    ^^Awful basketball the last time around, yet even after reading all of the above a victory should have been had.

    I’m guessing every single thing doesn’t go Wake’s way tonight and that Cavanaugh doesn’t come out and hit 4 consecutive three-pointers.

    Really like our chances so long as the focus and intensity is there.

    #40267

    maverick_ncsu
    Participant

    I am never one that wants to put wins and losses on one play, or bad call, or no call, etc. But because I apparently missed it on the last play and since the travel on the last play was referenced above, I thought I’d share this for anyone else here that may have missed it as well (watch around the 2:01 mark):

    Wake_beats_ncstate_on_travel

    #40272

    nav
    Participant

    I have a hard time being too upset with the end of the Wake game considering the free ride we got at the end of the Miami game where we mugged the shooter on a 75ft shot at the end of the game. Win some-lose some. It does bring up a much bigger discussion about ref’s swallowing their whistle during the last 5 sec of games.
    I’m kinda in favor of the let’em play attitude but then again I’m in favor of that for the entire 40 min. I hate the ticky-tak fouls. In some games it seems as though the guard can drive the lane every single time and guarantee a foul. Even if he drives directly at the defender.

    #40273

    Fastback68
    Participant

    Should be an interesting close to the season. Maryland vs. UVA, Duke, Cuse, Clem/ FSU vs UNX, Pitt, Cuse/ Clemson vs. Cuse, UVA, Pitt/ UNX vs 2Duke, Pitt, FSU, State. Pack will have their shots at moving up. Sorry TJ, I know your back is already sore but this is where you have to crank it up a few more notches. Good Luck and Go Pack!

    #40274

    PapaWolf
    Participant

    MUST WIN!
    We’ve got to have this one. Thank heavens it’s at home. Please – please – please make this one easier to watch than that last one. I was ready to jump out the window in the second half. It seemed like 30 seconds didn’t pass w/o a foul.

    CMM is a game time decision? I’m thinking that is a sure recipe for a career high performance.

    C’mon back Beejay, we need those five fouls on the court.
    Turner / Lee need to score early and often
    Lewis / Cat need to keep a tight handle on the ball
    Wash – get that jump shot going again
    TJ – don’t foul out please

    #40275

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    After the Twerps game in Charlottesville and their recent defeats in Raleigh and Chapel Hill….

    I wonder if “our buddy” ol’ Len Elmore… will wax eloquently on his beloved Twerps departure to basketball oblivion (Des Moines, Lincoln, etc.)… ???

    I’ve been saying this for a couple games… and I’m sticking to it…. it’s GOTTa happen sooner or later….

    Tonight could be the night we get that breakout game where everything our Coaches and kids have been working on ALL SEASON comes together and we move our game to the next level for the rest of this season…

    PACK by double digits against the Deacs….

    Will CUZ be a leader again tonight or will he just get his twenty?

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #40276

    nav
    Participant

    Next 4 games…Wake, Cuse, Clem, and VT with the last 3 on the road. We really, really need to win 3 of 4 in that stretch to have a decent shot at the tourney, which won’t be easy. I think there’s little to no shot of winning at Syracuse but man do we need that signature win on the resume to push us ahead of a lot of other middle-of-the-road teams. We have 3 chances left. Cuse, NC, and Pitt. We gotta get one of those. Maybe two depending on how we do against the rest of the teams we should beat.

    #40277

    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    “Will CUZ be a leader again tonight or will he just get his twenty?”

    ^I’m not seeing the suggested lack of leadership. His performances have for the most part been very consistent with respect to both production and effort. Also, I’m thrilled with how he lets the offense come to him and how a very high percentage of his scores come off of putbacks / offensive rebounds.

    Even with occasional poor shot selection, he’s still not forcing the offense – that has been a pg issue all season. What do you see specifically that suggests a lack of leadership (honest question – not meant in a snide tone)?

    He doesn’t seem to be a vocal leader, so there’s that – but this aspect of ‘leadership’ is extremely overrated imo (unless it’s communicating on the floor during play – that’s a must). I’m not suggesting that this specifically is what you meant, but it’s worth mentioning . If Warren’s quiet / soft spoken – it doesn’t matter (again, imo). Leading by example and correcting mistakes/behaviors are where it’s at for me.

    Tangent – I’d want to strangle Ray Lewis (no pun intended, har har) – he’s great at leading by example – but the dancing/preening/getting in the face stuff can gtho … I can do my job without that crap … in fact, it would be a detriment to me doing my job.

    #40278

    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    One person that needs to have his minutes reduced and given to another is Washington. Washington is actually costing us games at this point due to his “offense”.

    – Washington has an overall ORtg of 83 and conference ORtg of 77. Washington’s overall Offensive Win Share is -0.2 (the only player on the team with a negative win share) and his conference OWS is -0.3. You add in his Defensive Win Shares and his overall Win Share is 0.3 and his ACC Win Share is 0.0.

    Who should get more of his minutes? Leonard Freeman.

    – Freeman’s overall ORtg is 113 and conference ORtg is 120. His overall OWS is 0.6 and ACC OWS is 0.3. His overall Win Share is 1.3 and his ACC Win Share is 0.5.

    Basically, Freeman has proven he deserves more time and it needs to come at the expense of Washington at this moment.

    Another thing, Barber has really struggled offensively in conference play, to the point he’s has a negative impact on the offensive end. If you’ve ever seen his stats from a game you’ll see that it’s mainly due to taking way too many shots…and missing them. He needs to focus more on getting others the ball and less about taking quick shots that lead to fast break opportunities for the opposition.

    #40279

    Fastback68
    Participant

    After watching several cuse games and in particular vs. clemson, State won’t have much of a chance of winning that game if somebody can’t consistently hit the “open” mid-range jumper. There have been times this season that Washington so reminded me of Painter I was surprised no one started calling him Pringles II. I can’t argue the math stats or his current slump but do you risk shattering his confidence by slashing his minutes in tonight’s game or let him take 6-8 shots to find his groove. I don’t know what is worse, Lee’s utter refusal to attempt wide open shots at any distance or Washington going 0-8 on open mid-range jumpers. Love Freeman, but there is definite hesitation on his offensive side as well. Coaching is a -itch of a job. Anyway, I think it’s our turn for a fun game to watch.

    #40280

    MP
    Participant

    I agree on Washington. As soon as Turner stopped taking too many shots (or at least too many bad shots), Washington seemed to start doing the same thing. We are definitely winning some games in spite of his offense.

    OTOH I agree re: his confidence – Because I was loving his game before he started shooting too much. It is a coaching issue. They need to communicate to him what a good shot is – and when. And in the meantime, get on the boards.

    #40281

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^pup76….

    RE:CUZ…

    it’s not about the vocal part…
    remember last game… 8 out 8 from the charity stripe… in last 5:43 of game…
    no noise, no fuss… just “quiet leadership”… the kind you describe…
    that’s good enough for me too…

    But… looking back over the course of the seasons…
    some nights… yes…
    other nights… maybe not so much….

    Who knows what night — CUZ will be tonight?

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #40282

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I hope the game is less hideously played

    I always knew that BJD was an optimist at heart.

    The realist is separated from the optimist by understanding the differential in meaning between “hope” and “expect.” :D

    #40284

    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    I believe Washington has a higher ceiling than Freeman, definitely more athletic, but I’m not talking about zero playing time but reducing his minutes and giving that time to Freeman.

    ACC Only Stats:

    Washington is better at defensive rebounding and shot blocking but that’s it. This isn’t about crushing a players confidence, just adjusting minutes allocated to help the team win.

    #40285

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    If KH is healthy…more of him, and less Vandy too. He’s been exposed and/or awful of late.

    WF seems like a team we could “three guard” at times, too. That could help Cat break out of his funk, with better offensive spacing.

    #40286

    Wufpacker
    Keymaster

    Halftime: Budweiser & women’s curling.

    I did my time and put in my 15ish minutes on curling yesterday (and only that long because the British skip is a cutie).
    I’m good for another 4 years now….sheeesh that’s a boring ‘sport’.

    #40288

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Some of you guys want Gott to coach with a moneyball strategy. This man means 1.8 more points but .4 less rebounds, based on 50% shooting, that’s still 1 point better per 40 minutes therefore he should get more playing time than that man. I’m not sure how that works in basketball.
    It’s probably a lot more feel. I think it’s figure out who is hot today and get them the ball. But yea coaching is a bear of a job. I blow clock management in little league football games.

    But yes Washington is in a slump. He needs to move in a little and not shoot from just inside the arch. Like a slumping 3 point shooter, get something easier to get your shot going. But as to a greater upside over freeman, who knows, the kid is just barely 18.

    And someone besides Warren has to be able to take the ball inside against the zone!

    #40289

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    … more three guard tonite … ??
    … more balanced scoring tonite… ??
    … a dominant BIG shows up .. VANDWAGON, KW, Anya… ??

    It does NOT matter which one of the above….

    If ANY ONE of the above … PACK wins going away…
    If two out of three… it’s a blowout…

    If NONE of the above… same results as at the Joel….

    —————-

    I wonder who’s starting at the POINT tonight ?? Anybody heard anything ’bout that ??

    Strengths and weaknesses, pros and cons, yada-yada-yada…
    no need to rehash all that… just wondering who ?

    But it doesn’t really matter a whole lot at this point in the season…

    It’s the same scenario as above…
    Both kids will play.
    If either ‘starter’ plays well… we win…
    If the “starter” isn’t bringing it 100%…. there will be a quick substitution….
    and if the ‘sub’ brings it… he’ll play on… and we win…

    If both of ‘em GOTT “the funk”… we’re in trouble… again…

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #40290

    PapaWolf
    Participant

    Kyle “George” Washington.
    I like him. He’s still a toddler figuring out NCAA level ball, but all the signs point to him developing into a very solid multi-year player. Painter seems like a good comparison, and we hated when he left.
    Sometimes it feels like he shoots because he’s been told to (I.e. “if we get the ball to you right there, put it up”), rather than actually having a feel for when the shot is there. I think the shots he is taking are within his range, he just needs to settle down and put them down.
    But let’s give him credit for getting that rebound at Miami that we really needed to avoid Miami putting it back up. And that foul on the desperation heave was brilliant! LOL

    Yea, the numbers aren’t good so far, but I think all of these minutes he is getting now will pay off next year.

    #40291

    Wolfanatic
    Participant

    Washington’s “hook” shot at times, resembles more of a volleyball spike as opposed to a shot. I don’t see a lot of touch when he attempts it. It would be nice to see him get a bit of air beneath it. I do think he is going to be a very good player for State for some time to come. It would be comforting to see him develop that shot and become more of an offensive threat inside.

    #40292

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Washington should end up quicker/more versatile, better than Painter. And if Freeman becomes half the man Howell was, and I think he can, we are solid at Power Forward for a few years.
    But we need their best of the year these next 8, 11, 14 games.
    We have not seen improvement from that position, nor from the 5 position in during this 4/5 win streak.

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