NC STATE vs UNC Preview

ncsu-unc

Time: 8:00pm
TV: ACC Network
Announcers: Tim Brandt, Mike Gminski

I’d like to say I’m excited about playing the Cheats and can’t wait for the game tonight but I’d be lying, even with a must win resume defining game on the line. The fact is I’ve got zero desire to watch this game, even less than the VT game, simply because I’m sick and tired of watching us not only lose to them but not even be competitive. I almost skipped the charts for today and was about to throw up a Top 10 list of things more enjoyable than watching this game…maybe next time.

Magic Numbers:
– NCSU is 9-0 when they shoot 50% or better.
– NCSU is 16-3 when they score 65 or more points. (NCCU, Wake, UNC)
– UNC is 19-3 when they score 65 or more points. (Belmont, Texas, Wake)

ADVANTAGE

I’d actually tune in to watch if hot babes were the refs.

This is where Gottfried’s philosophy of trying to out offense an opponent doesn’t work.

What’s at Stake?
– If the Wolfpack can win then they get a Top 25 or Top 50 RPI win, of which they currently have neither. (FSU #56, Tenn #59) A win would also put them in a tie with Clemson for 6th place (who lost to Wake last night) and a half game behind Pittsburgh (who is playing at BC tonight) for 5th.
– A loss would put the Pack below .500, in a 3-way tie for 7th place with Maryland and FSU, and pretty much leave the Pack with having to win out the regular season and get to Sunday in the ACCT with 2 wins over Top 25 teams to realistically earn a spot in the NCAAT without any outside help.

Prediction
KenPom thinks UNC by 4. I predict another butt kicking.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home Forums NC STATE vs UNC Preview

This topic contains 63 replies, has 32 voices, and was last updated by  Texpack 8 months ago.

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  • #42377

    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    Time: 8:00pm TV: ACC Network Announcers: I’d like to say I’m excited about playing the Cheats and can’t wait for the game tonight but I’d be lying. Th
    [See the full post at: NC STATE vs UNC Preview]

    #42385

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Marcus Paige. Don’t stop him, don’t stop the Heels.

    They are rolling and you can bet your behind Roy will have them ready. He knows we are on the ropes.

    #42386

    Prowling Woofie
    Participant

    Surprise me, Pack – keep it under 20.

    #42388

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Over the years, I’ve missed alot of UNC/State games because they’re not carried by the local cable company. The football game wasn’t carried one year so that they could show the locally-produced recap of the Hokie football season. Naturally, tonight’s game will be carried.

    I’m not much for predictions, but I’m expecting for some LOL comments in tonight’s game thread.

    #42389

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    This might be our very worst matchup in all of basketball.

    Point one – their best strength nestles in with our biggest weakness. As in, doesn’t much matter how high a percentage they shoot, if they are able to keep shooting until it goes in (because we can’t get a defensive rebound).

    Additionally, with Cat having spiralled into Kenny Drummond territory…we face big problems. WBS matches up terribly with the Holes – he’s succeptible to their aggressive ball pressure, and there’s no way he can guard anybody they play on the perimeter.

    I am expecting an early bedtime, one that comes with an even more depressed state of mind than I will have going in. Hide yer razor blades, kids…

    #42390

    Texpack
    Participant

    I’ll go nostalgic to start. My first State-Carolina game was Clyde the Glide with the between the legs pass to Hawkeye Whitney for a slam. My fourth year at State was Lowe to Bailey for the Sam Perkins facial to cap the upset of the #1 Holes. These games always get my blood pumping a little stronger.

    Now it’s time for game analysis. Defensive rebounding, turnovers, and our ability to hit 3 point shots. I’m afraid that GOTT will try to recreate the first game and go small. That would mean too many minutes for the turnover twins (Lee & Barber). I think we have a 12.3% chance of winning the game. I will watch via ESPN3 provided Verizon “HSI” cooperates

    #42391

    PackMan97
    Participant

    I’ve lost interest in watching this game because I know that it’s not a fair game. Carolina players don’t have to attend class. They don’t have homework. They don’t have exams to worry about. They get extra time to relax, have fun and most importantly get better at basketball. It sickens me to think we have put up with playing a bunch of CHEATERS since the scandal broke. I’d be happy not even showing up and putting an Forfeit on the schedule.

    However, since we continue to play them, I hope the PNC Arena is filled with nothing but “CHEATERS, CHEATERS, CHEATERS” whenever the Cheats have the ball. Don’t get cute, don’t get fancy, just let the world know Carolina CHEATS, has cheated and most likely will cheat.

    #42392

    PapaWolf
    Participant

    UNC by only 4?? Is that a typo? Should it be 14, 24, or 34? If I were a fan of the baby blue goats I think I might put a stack of cash on winning by more than 4.

    Jig got it exactly right. The ‘just slow them down’ defensive and ‘out score them’ offensive strategy is not going to work in this scenario. We’d need either a defensive effort that I doubt we are capable of, or an across the board, career scoring high for several players.

    Here’s how I see it playing out:
    1) Interior foul trouble – Vandy and TJ with two fouls by the 10 minute mark of the first half.
    2) Paige blows up from the start, eats Tyler’s lunch. Two fouls on Tyler early, Cat in the game and overwhelmed.
    3) Nasty game

    The good news?? I doubt we’ll blame this loss on the refs.

    #42394

    sow61
    Participant

    I will bet anyone who posts on this site a grand that TJ Warren has 2 fouls within the first 5 minutes or sooner.

    #42395

    Mike
    Participant

    Can we channel a Gugs/CC encore?

    This is not their rival game according to the fans and the media, but Roy thinks this is. Roy will have his troops ready because this is the rivalry for Roy.

    #42398

    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    My furnace just died, taking that a very bad omen. Fireplace voodoo tonight for a little luck. If the Pack ain’t, I’m gettin’ lucky anyway.

    Perfect assessment by BJD95. We get rolled tonight. Unless…we play HWSNBN ball, slow it way down, hope Buckets is Buckets, and we shoot light outs from 3.

    Roy will show no mercy. They blame us for the sanctions and scrutiny they’ve received. Their fans want to bask and gloat. Anything short of a 30-40 point win for them will be a disappointment. This may be the beginning of the end for Gott, or an awakening. Hope we’re ready.

    #42399

    JohnGalt78
    Participant

    Where to begin? PackMan97, that is how I feel brother. EVERYTHING about them is a sham. It’s not real. Think Mark McGuire, Bonds, Sosa. Same deal. Yet we are forced to play them in a game that counts on our record and against data-supported officiating bias that, assuming this fraud team isn’t getting it done, will help them over the top. It makes me sick.

    And now they will have us believe that because they perhaps found the most expensive, high profile lawyer who would accept their open casting call for the “Weely, weely serious investigation, Part 3″ we can now simply forget that anything was ever amiss over in Fraud Hill. This guy is BIG TIME! Therefore, whatever he says, must be true. Inquiring minds weren’t buying what Martin was selling so now, by God, at $1,000 per hour, the Cheaters will put an end to all this nonsense.

    Point spread of 4. What do the wise guys know that we don’t? Home court does not mean squat when it’s 5 against 8. I have to believe they don’t follow officiating “tendencies”. Do they know who is officiating when these lines are set? I love NCSU, but I’m taking a big piece of that and hoping I lose my ass.

    Finally, if there is a Sports God (apparently Coach K believes there is), then surely, every now and then, he must step in and have good prevail over evil. Please Mr. God o’Sports, tune in to the PNC arena every now and then tonight and look down upon the darkness that calls itself the Flagship (although you don’t hear that as often these days) and bring occasional sadness to them in the form of critical turnovers, high ankle sprains, IBS, high fever, double vision and/or complete blindness. That’s all we ask…..make it an even playing field, it that’s possible.

    #42400

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I’ve watched maybe 90 minutes (real time) of their games this season. I just can’t stand to watch those cheating, arrogant SOBs. They’re as bad, if not worse, than K’s bunch of diving cunts at this point.

    #42401

    FergusWolf
    Participant

    see, I have a different, yet equally awful guess as to how the game is going to play out…

    In the first half, we are going to play lights out ball, probably lead by, say 17 at half time…but, the fouls are going to a lopsided, and TJ will have 2 just before the half.

    We will come out on fire at the beginning of the second half and quickly stretch the lead to 25 points…then, TJ gets his third foul, 3 minutes into the second half.

    Due to a stretch of bad shots, turn overs, ridiculous fouls, at least one technical on Des Lee, and 2 missed Vanderoops, Carolina will out score us 31 to 9 in the next 16 minutes and 50 seconds. Leaving us up by 3

    During which time, TJ, V-berg, Des Lee, Ralston Turner, and Tyler Lewis will have all fouled out of the game. In fact, the only reason we will still be tied is that Carolina only hits 12 of their 39 free throws in the 2nd half.

    Then, we will have the ball with 10 seconds left, and rather than allow himself to be fouled, Cat will put up a quick three, miss badly, and the ball will go out of bounds.

    Carolina will get the ball under the basket with 5 second left, a quick pass to Paige at 3/4 court. He will heave up a shot, and be fouled by Barber…and, then Freeman will goal-tend the shot at the other end, leaving the score tied, no time on the clock, and Paige at the line…

    The next thing I’ll remember is waking up in the mental patient ward, with my wife explaining that I had a nervous breakdown.

    #42402

    FergusWolf
    Participant

    And, yes, I have spent too much time thinking about this

    #42403

    44rules
    Participant

    Will this all be over by Friday?

    #42404

    WolfWiz11
    Participant

    I remember a post a few weeks ago where the poster made a good point. What if the fellas are reading these forums? What if they saw the lack of faith people have in them? Could that be contributing to their lack of confidence on the court?

    With that in mind, I have absolute complete confidence in our guys. We can get it done; shoot, we damn near beat Cuse, and I think you could make the argument that ‘Cuse wasn’t completely exposed until its loss at BC or its mere 2-pt victory at MD. We have the talent and we have the coach who gives us the best chance at victory since maybe even before Sendek. All we GOTT to do is play smart, tough, and efficient basketball for 40 minutes.

    #GoPack #NeverGiveUp

    #42405

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    … :>} some of ya’ll are spending waaay to much time thinking about this game….

    I’ve seen about a hundred of these State v *NC games…
    I am pretty sure I have already seen tonight’s game at least once….

    The fun part is I don’t know which one… so I GOTT to watch to find out.

    ———–

    The keys to this game are real simple…

    1. Can / Will our kids play forty minutes of their best team game and can we be multi-dimensional on the offensive end of the court — that means three guys in double digits and everybody hitting the boards??

    2. Do the fouls… there’s gonna be plenty of them tonight… fall on us or them or equally??
    Remember… Neither team is especially deep… and both have been foul prone across the front line…

    Both of those are wildcards… which makes the 4 point spread (the average of all projected results) make sense but the curve on the spread is an inverted logarithmic curve…

    To put that another way…
    the chances of a double digit win by the holes are about 50%…
    the chances of a double digit win by the Pack are about 30%…
    the chances of the outcome determined by free throws and the last shot are about 20%…

    ————-

    That’s the logical conclusion from here…

    But as alluded to above…
    This game brings out the GHOSTS…. and when the Ghosts show up in force… anything is possible.

    Never bet against the GHOSTS.

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #42406

    graywolf
    Participant

    We lose big to a bunch of cheaters. Gott gets the blame and it is the start of the end of Gott and on to the next savior of our basketball program. The cycle continues while they continue to CHEAT to win in Orange Co.
    All of my money is going to football and will continue to do so. I think we can be successful in football easier than in baskeball because of the officiating fiasco that is the ACC.
    My how I hate the turds in chapel hill…….you can polish a turd all you want and its still a turd.

    #42407

    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    I remember a post a few weeks ago where the poster made a good point. What if the fellas are reading these forums? What if they saw the lack of faith people have in them? Could that be contributing to their lack of confidence on the court?

    If that were true then we’re more screwed than we all think we are.

    #42408

    13OT
    Participant

    This game will have little if any bearing on the NCAAT for this State team. Barring a run to the ACCT title game, that ship has already sailed (and sunk). But it will have major impact on the State fanbase psyche and a little bump in national recognition, thanks mainly to Carolina’s revival this season.

    The other night, I turned on the State coaches show on cable channel MASN, and noted on the channel lineup that it was titled “The Matt Gottfried Show”. To say that our program is in the midst of a worsening identity crisis is an understatement. Tonight’s game is a must-win if we are to ever begin the process of returning to even a competitive status with the other Triangle ACC schools. The 8pm time slot, on local tv only, is a dead giveaway that nobody outside this state cares a hoot about this game, and not because Carolina is playing.

    Anything can happen tonight, but it’s time we quit playing scared against this school (and Duke). How else do you explain the beatings administered by the Blues and then having a game stolen by the #1 team? For too long, the same State team that has been competitive in most games has run away and hidden in the games vs the Blues. Until these “head case” games stop, our basketball program will continue its slide into oblivion.

    #42409

    pakfanistan
    Participant

    I remember a post a few weeks ago where the poster made a good point. What if the fellas are reading these forums? What if they saw the lack of faith people have in them? Could that be contributing to their lack of confidence on the court?

    Eh, Gott has been preparing the team by reinforcing the, “nobody thinks you have a chance narrative”.

    I heard the comments on the radio and it sounded very calculated.

    Sorry for the N&O link.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/02/22/3646392/gottfried-already-excited-about.html

    "I want my ten dollars!" -Abraham Lincoln
    #42410

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    +1 –13OT….

    Maybe it’s playing ‘scared’ or maybe it’s ‘too pumped up’ for the games…
    (definitely the case with ANTHONY in the Dean Dome and his thinking HE was gonna beat the Holes all by himself.. )
    it doesn’t really matter as the result is exactly the same…

    IMO… freshman should NOT even be expected, or asked to play, much less start, in any away game withing 75 miles of campus….

    Across the country, The backbone of most of the most successful teams this season is a strong group of upperclassmen….
    Until that’s the case for NCState … what you see is what you get….
    If that is not a major part of the plan … then that’s another story….

    And anybody that thinks we are going to promised land by out recruiting everybody and getting more out of our freshman and sophomores than everybody…
    perhaps needs to rethink their position…. to put it politely….

    Never bet against the GHOSTS.

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #42411

    Rick
    Keymaster

    If by some miracle we play the game of our lives and
    If by some miracle the refs call an even game and
    If by some miracle UNC plays like crap
    Then we will have a chance to win it at the end and will screw it up like we always do.

    This game will be ugly, I mean Tammy Faye Baker ugly.

    #42412

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    They (Duke and UNC) have much better players across the board. And also better coaches. It’s really pretty simple.

    How to change that isn’t so simple, I very much agree.

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