NC STATE at SYRACUSE Preview

13-14 Basketball403

Time: 3:00 pm
TV: ACC Network
Announcers: Steve Martin, Mike Gminski

NC State kicks off a three game road trip, starting with flying to New York to play Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. The Pack have had some big successes in the Carrier Dome. Who can forget 1998 and Torry Holt?

Last Time Out:
Syracuse traveled to Pitt and escaped with their #1 ranking and undefeated record still intact when Tyler Ennis drains a long three as time expires to win 58-56.

ZONE, ZONE, and more ZONE. The Pack’s worst nightmare matchup (outside of trying to beat UNC at its own game without the horses to match them) has finally arrived, athletic, talented, big men who are quick and play tough zone defense and control the tempo at their slowed down pace. Gee, what DON’T they do well? Defensive Rebounding, that’s it folks. Basketball is all about matchups and momentum, M&M. (oh boy do I love the peanut variety) The Pack simply matches up poorly against the Orange so if they Pack play their typical game it will be another typical blowout against a top ranked team.

Probable Starters:
#5 CJ Fair (6-8 215 SR) Forward – Fair is not having the type of season worthy of all the POY talk that he gets but that doesn’t mean he’s not All ACC material. He only has an ORtg of 102 and an average rebounding rate and his shooting (eFG) is only 47.2%.
#11 Tyler Ennis (6-2 180 FR) Guard – Ennis is one seriously talented freshman point guard. He sports an assist rate of 32.3% coupled with a turnover rate of only 13.3. This kid is solid at running the Orange and he can play defense and score too. Ennis is just as dangerous as Fair.
#10 Trevor Cooney (6-4 195 SO) Guard – Three Point Specialist, 72% of his shots come from outside the arc and he’s good at making them (.433). Give up the 2 in favor of not letting him shoot 3’s.
#25 Rakeem Christmas (6-9 250 JR) Forward – Christmas is a shot blocking, rebounding machine that may only take 4 or 5 shots a game he’ll make most of them (.684).
#3 Jerami Grant (6-8 210 SO) Forward – Grant became the starter after DaJuan Coleman was lost for the season back in early January due to a knee injury. Grant may not have started the season as the starter but he’s proven to be a quality player. Must be nice to have a guy come off the bench and give you an ORtg of 118, rebound, block, and score.

Bench:
#12 Baye Keita (6-10 220 SR), #0 Michael Gbinije (6-7 200 SO), #21 Tyler Roberson (6-8 212 FR)

All are good rebounders and Keita is a shot blocker. We’re likely to see more of Keita and Gbinije than Roberson.

Keys to the Pack winning:

Three things the Pack must do differently to have a chance at winning:

1. Defensive Rebounding. Limit their second chances due to fewer possessions.
2. Get to the FT Line and make a high percentage of them.
3. Make a high percentage of 3’s to give Warren room to move inside.

Bonus Key: Guards handle the pressure and not turn the ball over.

Magic Number: 65
NC State is 15-3 when they score 65 or more points this season.
Syracuse has only allowed 6 teams to score 65 or more points this season.

Another Magic Number: 25
NC State is 8-0 when TJ Warren scores 25 or more points this season.

One More Magic Number: 50
NC State is 9-0 when they shoot 50% or better.

Series Notes:

NC State is 1-4 against Syracuse

12/4/90 #4 Syracuse 86, NC State 79 (at Syracuse)
2/3/01 #12 Syracuse 54, NC State 53 (at PNC)
12/8/01 NC State 82, #9 Syracuse 68 (at Syracuse)
2/13/11 #8 Syracuse 65, NC State 59 (at Syracuse)
12/17/12 #1 Syracuse 88, NC State 72 (at PNC)

Fun Facts

– NC State has an 8-0 record when shooting the same number or more free throws than its opponents.
– State is 7-1 when making the same or more foul shots.
– State is 15-1 when it shoots better/same as opponent.

ADVANTAGES

I’m still waiting on this “improvement” to show up so I don’t have to keep seeing all these facepalms. Pack Offense vs. Orange Defense, will the Pack turn Syracuse’s Zone into Sunny D or will the Tropicana Concentrate shutdown anything the Pack has?

DE-FEN-SIVE RE-BOUND-ING. I’ll keep saying this until I’m blue in the face or until someone on the coaching staff realizes it’s killing us. The one stat I’ll be looking at to measure our chances. If the Pack’s offense can overcome the zone then defensive rebounding will likely be the deciding factor in the game.

PREDICTOR

Vegas likes Syracuse by 14. KenPom likes the Orange by 15 and gives State a 7% chance at winning.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home › Forums › NC STATE at SYRACUSE Preview

Viewing 4 posts - 401 through 404 (of 404 total)
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  • 02/16/2014 at 1:22 PM #41256
    WolfWiz11
    Participant

    Cat holds the ball for a few seconds, gets fouled, sinks a couple free throws, we win. Poor kid. Made a really boneheaded pass, one that really shows his low basketball IQ at this point. That’s just coaching and I can’t really lay it on Gott; that’s something Cat should have learned in HS or on the AAU circuit.

    02/16/2014 at 1:36 PM #41258
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Made a really boneheaded pass, one that really shows his low basketball IQ at this point.

    Did you watch the play? We inbound the ball to him in the corner. Two guys charge him and trap him. He sees it coming. Problem is nobody else in red runs to the ball, or does anything. Just watching their teammate get doubled. If you want to see it go to the MBB page on espn.com and watch the highlights. That’s how it went down.

    So yea, I can excuse the mistake from the young gun.

    02/16/2014 at 2:14 PM #41268
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    You can “what if” that play all you want. Anthony could have held the ball 5 seconds and we would at least set up a defense, or better yet, hold the ball 4 sec and bounce if off a knee. But the kid was trying to do the right thing and move the ball. We are better than the start of conference play and will get better. That was one aggressive trapping defense the last minute and we almost survived it.

    I don’t blame the players, our coach, the refs or NC State $#!+. It just didn’t go our way. Hopefully we get some back these last 6 conference games and tourney games. And yes, although continuation to the basket is more prevalent in the pros, I thought Warren’s shot should have counted. But I don’t think the call was part of a conspiracy. And yes I was calling BS on the 2nd half foul discrepancy, but practical reasons for that discrepancy have been discussed. If I say more, the trolls will attack.

    It was great to see Washington come out of his slump. He was awesome last night. Yes he deserves his minutes. Some were bashing him last week.

    One last though that will wake up the trolls, but this is a late post so it won’t be read by many. I’m tired of the whole NC State $#!+ shtick anyway.
    I think all teams have things go their way and go against them. The less talent a team has probably the more breaks go against it. Better players can make things happen. I think as Gott and DD bring in better and better players, the breaks will go our way more often.

    But if you believe in fate, then the 83 team used up 30 years of it and now we should get back to normal. Just saying….

    Anyway, Hell yes the team has improved, yes we had a chance last night and some of us said so before the game and yes we have a chance to make the tournament although it has been and is a long shot. I think 4-2 does it because of the last 2/3rd of the conference play. A Tourney win on Thursday is a must and a Friday win also if we don’t get a top 50 RPI win in regular season.

    02/16/2014 at 9:30 PM #41358
    WolfWiz11
    Participant

    You’re actually mostly right; I was on the road to and from Fayetteville and only got inside in time to see the last 7 seconds and that play by Cat. My post did sound a bit harsh; that’s really what went through my mind at the time. I had nightmares last night just playing that over and over in my head. So I will backtrack and say this: yes, he made a decision and it was a freshman one; the Syracuse defense was swarming and that probably would have made even a grown 24-year old like myself wet the front of my pants (those guys have the limbs of tarantulas). So he threw an ill-advised pass and that’s understandable. Hindsight is 20/20. And the what ifs are killing me b/c they would have HAD to foul. And they had some to give. Just stinks to be that close.

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