ACC BB Round-Up

Gott_face_palm

The facepalm seems to have gained popularity during the pre-game reports and the results over the past week certainly deserve one (probably more than one).    I could say a lot more, but I think that everything that could be said has already been covered in the half-dozen threads since last Sat.

The regular season is down to two weeks and four or five games.   Time is running out so we’ll look at how the teams are shaping up for the various byes in the ACCT.   Of course, we’ll also look at the mess in the middle to see that there is a lot of work left for all of these teams if they want an at-large bid to the NCAAT.

But let’s start with the RPI charts to see where everyone in the top 2/3 of the conference is sitting.

Housekeeping notes:

  • FSU has been removed from the IN graph.
  • UNC and WF have been removed from the BUBBLE graph.

 

2_21_IN

UNC (9-4)

Remaining schedule – WF and ND at home with State, VT, and Duke on the road.     UNC will be favored in four of those games.     They should be able to sleep-walk to at least 12 wins and with the tie-breaker over Pitt, will likely end up no worse than the 4 seed.   UNC is currently tied with Duke in the loss column which means that the game in Durham to end the regular season should be for the 3rd seed.

UNC should be moving up in the various seeding brackets…and currently should be around a 5-6 seed.   Interesting factoid #1:   The six seed has a better winning percentage in the NCAAT than the 5th seed.

 

Pitt (8-5)

Remaining schedule – BC, ND, and Clemson on the road with FSU and State at home.    Pitt will probably be favored in all of these games, so we should expect 12 or 13 wins.   To get the 4th seed in the ACCT and a two-round bye, Pitt needs Duke and someone else to beat UNC down the stretch.   Worst case, their final game against Clemson will be for the 5th seed.

Pitt’s best win of the year….#48 Stanford.    Combine this embarrassing fact with their RPI and they are getting dangerously close to the dreaded 8/9 seed in the NCAAT (ie,  the second round ejection seat).    Interesting factoid #2….the #10 seed has a better winning percentage in the NCAAT than the #9 seed.

 

 

2_21_Bubble

The overwhelming conclusion from this graph is that the bubble teams allegedly competing for an at-large bid don’t have much movement in that direction.   0.500 ball from this point on will not get any of these teams into the NCAAT.

 

Clemson (7-6)

Clemson’s schedule  starts with a two game road stretch against GT and WF and then they finish the season at home against UMD, UM, and Pitt.   The Tiggers will probably be favored in four of five games and could end up with 11 wins.    It wouldn’t take a lot for the final game of the regular season against Pitt in SC to end up being for the 5th seed in the ACCT…and possibly a ticket to the Big Dance.   But then again, there is no way to predict what a team that has beaten Duke and lost to #114 ND will do from one game to the next.

Some details on Clemson’s NCAAT Resume

  • RPI Ranking of #72 – not good
  • OOC SOS of #272 – somewhere between bad and very bad
  • Best win – #10 Duke – very good
  • 2nd best win – #56 NCSU – not good
  • Bad Losses – @ #114 ND and @ #142 Auburn – pretty typical for back-side of bubble teams

Clemson’s goals:

  • win over Pitt
  • win on Friday in ACCT
  • Enough other wins to have an RPI at 60 or better.

NCSU (6-7)

Remaining schedule – VT and Pitt on the road and UNC, UM and BC at home.   Favored in three of the five games trending towards a 9-9 record.

Highlights of State’s NCAAT Resume:

  • RPI Ranking #58 – OK but nothing spectacular
  • OOC SOS of #110 – nothing special, but not horrible
  • Best win @ #50 Tenn – somewhere between not good and bad
  • Bad Losses – @ #105 WF and  #122 NC Central – typical

The focal point of State’s season was never going to be the Clemson game.   The way that they lost after playing so well at Syracuse shows that there was no magical transformation before the trip north.   The same State team that we’ve seen blown out a number of times this year still sits on the bench next to MG.    State fans will need to see the Carrier Dome version of the Pack play for the entire game several times against at least two good teams between now and Selection Sunday.

UMD (7-7)

Remaining schedule – Clemson on the road and SYR, VT and UVa at home.    They will probably only be favored in one game the rest of the year suggesting 8-10.   I’m shocked that a UMD team that couldn’t beat State playing without Warren still shows up on the Bubble Graph at all.

FSU (6-8)

Remaining schedule – BC and Pitt on the road with GT and SYR at home.   2-2 would give the Noles an 8-10 record to wrap up one of the worst collapses in recent memory.

ND (5-9)

Remaining schedule – WF, UVA, and UNC on the road with GT and Pitt at home.   For a team that couldn’t beat UM on the road this week, 6 or 7 wins and the final spot on Wed seems likely.

 

Final Thoughts

The pre-season poll on the right side of the SFN homepage showed that 60% of the voters expected this State team to win between 7-9 games.   This prediction is a little odd since pre-season expectations among State fans frequently trend towards delusionally-optimistic.     But this is one of those times when there is no joy in being proven right.

One of the choices on the pre-season poll was 9-9 and NCAAT Bubble.   With the expanded and weakened ACC, we need to disassociate ACC record with NCAAT selection.    Just last year, UVA had an 11-7 conference record and didn’t get an at-large bid.    With the unbalanced conference schedule and an overall weak conference, there are simply too many meaningless wins available to attempt any such correlation.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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This topic contains 48 replies, has 17 voices, and was last updated by  pakfanistan 8 months, 1 week ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 49 total)
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  • #41879

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    The facepalm seems to have gained popularity during the pre-game reports and the results over the past week certainly deserve one (probably more than one).
    [See the full post at: ACC BB Round-Up]

    #41880

    pakfanistan
    Participant

    "I want my ten dollars!" -Abraham Lincoln
    #41881

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Note that I didn’t say that there was a chance. I merely stated what needed to happen.

    EDIT
    Sorry, I lied. I forgot about attempting to be cute on the RPI graph.

    #41882

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    After seeing UNC whip Duke last night, coupled with the idea that they absolutely own us, there is no chance we win that game. They’ve gotten much better since our first game, and we haven’t. So we will be home for March.

    #41885

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    The heck with the schedule. I’m going with the upward trending, 1 week, 2 week alternating saw tooth pattern.
    Fall down one week, climb higher than we were before, fall down two weeks, climb higher than we were before, down one week, climb higher, down two weeks climb higher.
    No doubt we now climb this week which can only mean one thing VICTORY!!!

    Yea, that’s how I see it.

    #41887

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    This is the strangest streak I’ve ever seen

    Yes, the 3/6 game was the Chris Paul, low-blow game.

    #41890

    choppack1
    Participant

    Yep – we are definitely trending to 9-9.

    Clemson evidently went to the Seth Greenberg scheduling school, but at least they didn’t lose to a couple of those crap teams (like vatech always seemed to).

    As I said in other thread…we have a chance. Its not mind blowing to think of us winning 4 of our next 5 and going 1-1 in the tourney which would place us on that bubble.

    #41892

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Its not mind blowing to think of us winning 4 of our next 5 and going 1-1 in the tourney which would place us on that bubble

    We have different definitions of mind blowing. In any event, a win against Pitt and 1-1 in the ACCT probably wouldn’t be enough.

    #41893

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    I think 4-1 and 2-1 in ACCT would be. Difference would be two good wins, not one added to our resume.
    So for consideration, who would we rather play on Friday.
    I’m thinking Cuse but they may be out to kick our butt.

    #41894

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    But not guaranteed.

    #41895

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    9-9, NIT would be satisfactory. Not “good” – but satisfactory. We are what we are.

    This series is a good case study as to why the tourney does NOT need expanding. There are bubble teams on here that have had ample chances to improve their lot…and failed. Nothing on their resumes is the least bit impressive. Yet, they are still alive in late February. 68 slots be plenty, and no – the low/mid-majors don’t get too many bids.

    #41896

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    What if we go 5-0 and then pee down our leg? Do we have a chance?

    #41897

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    What people mean is that beating Pitt on the road (unlikely), holding serve in all other games, including ACCT Thursday (unlikely), AND a Friday ACCT win (unlikely) would likely be enough, and I agree. But understanding probability/statistics, getting 3 unlikelies is…quite unlikely. Being wildly optimistic and giving us a 40% shot at each prong, (.4)^3 = 6.4%.

    #41898

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I think 4-1 and 2-1 in ACCT would be.

    In the unlikely chance that State could do this, I think that an at=large bid would be guaranteed and also that the opponent on Friday wouldn’t matter.

    The most likely scenarios have Pitt in the 4-6 seed which means that they wouldn’t be State’s opponent. Syracuse, Duke, UVA, or UNC would all be a good enough win.

    #41899

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    BJD you are correct. More teams would be more teams like us that may get hot a game or two but just as likely may not show up and provide the fans any kind of decent game. Could you imagine a game like our showing against Clemson. Only the winning team’s fans could enjoy that. The rest to the USA – pass, no interest at all.

    #41900

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    no – the low/mid-majors don’t get too many bids.

    This is one thing that we’ve always disagreed on. In the “king for a day” scenario, I would move the bottom 12-16 conferences to some other designation and give them the NIT to fill in its entirety. Appy St got a lot of good attention by winning the I-AA championship several times and I would gladly do the same thing for small basketball programs.

    #41901

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    VWolf, yea, I was thinking of who we could possible beat on Friday. Agree any of the top 4 would be the great win we need. And were just dreaming anyway. Like maybe VA will knock Cuse back to 2 and we finish 7th. But it’s all a crap shoot I just hope we are ready for Va Tech.

    #41903

    Pack85EE
    Participant

    But see, all this talk of 3 needed but not likely wins ignores the upward trending saw tooth action that statistics blatantly show us climbing up to about 40 in RPI by the end this upcoming win streak.

    You see, in this case, Numbers isn’t bull$#!+ (but I could be).

    At least until Feb 27th and then I need a new plan.

    #41904

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    VA – I’m ok with it because those low majors have accomplished something, and it’s cool for them to have the experience. Plus, it gives weight to the regular season by aptly rewarding #1 and #2 seeds (almost no chance of losing their first game).

    Your argument could hold sway if you also reduced the size of the tourney to, say, 56 teams (giving the 1 and 2 seeds full instead of “de facto” byes). But that’s less for TV and thus bad for business. I would sooner reward the little guy than a middling big guy that hasn’t really done anything all season.

    I like how they split the play-in round games, too – 2 games for a 16 seed, 2 for an at-large place. Balances the equities of VA’s argument and mine (long ago on SFN, I proposed the 68-team format, but with all 4 games matching at-large combatants). In practice, it’s worked very well.

    #41905

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    When you think it through, the 7 seed is probably optimal for a bubble squad. You still play a Thursday team that’s on short rest, but you also get a Friday opponent that’s MUCH easier to beat than the 3 and 4 seeded Blues.

    Of course, Cuse could get their mojo back…but right now they look like shit. And everybody knows UVA is a paper tiger. They will be the team every office pool has being upset in their first NCAAT game.

    #41907

    wufpup76
    Participant

    This series is a good case study as to why the tourney does NOT need expanding.

    ^Oh God no – no more expanding … but that’s a topic for another day :)

    #41913

    Pack1998
    Participant

    9-9 with a chance of 10-8 would be a great coaching job by our standards. This team could have been lost (season lost) a few times this season.

    Pyramid of success style is a good approach for Gott.

    Great write up btw!!!

    #41914

    Wufpacker
    Keymaster

    I’m not prepared to agree that 9-9 or 10-8 would qualify as “great” coaching just yet, but I will say it wouldn’t be a dumpster fire.

    #41915

    WolfWiz11
    Participant

    I think we could easily go 4-1 if we play like we did the whole game against Syracuse or in the first halves of our games against Pitt and Mizzou. The one loss I see is to UNX, but perhaps our boys will be a little pissed about all the attention showered on the two Blues and that will motivate them to steal that one.

    I’m not as good with the stats i.e. BPI, RPI, SOS etc. but I’m a little hesitant to say that 4-1 or 3-2 and then 2 ACCT wins gets us in the dance–I feel like it really depends on who those 2 tourney wins are against. We have no good wins and a few bad losses; whereas UNX had losses to UAB, Belmont and UVA but wins over MSU, Kentucky, and Louisville and was STILL arguably on the bubble last night (I think it’s safe to say the Dook win put them in).

    Guys, I really think we’ve GOTT to win the ACCT to sway the selection committee. Make it so!

    #41916

    Texpack
    Participant

    Four freshmen, 2 sophomores, a red shirt senior who has never played meaningful minutes, a one trick pony transfer, and a JUCO transfer. If that rotation doesn’t scream mediocrity I don’t know what does. We are not dance worthy. I’ll be shocked at any better than 9-9.

    I said pre-season that our season would rest on how well we shot the three and how fast the freshman bigs matured. The bigs have been highly inconsistent but have improved. The shooting has sucked except for BSW in stretches. I was also correct in being cautious about Cat. He plays so much like the classic freshman it isn’t funny.

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