NC State at Wake Forest Preview

ncsu-wf

Tip Off: 9:00pm

TV: ACC Network
Announcers: Tim Brando, Dan Bonner

Here’s to never seeing what happened Saturday night against UVA every happening again, on to the next opponent…Wake Forest. Wake is currently riding a 10 game home winning streak this year, (1-2 on neutral court and 0-3 on the road), so this should be an interesting game against the Pack who is 3-1 on the road this year (8-4 at home).

The Bzzzzz’s have shown marketable improvement so far this year compared to last by increasing their efficiency on the offensive end without sacrificing their defense or tempo. They’ve done this by turning the ball over less, grabbing more offensive rebounds, and getting to the charity stripe more, though they haven’t been very charitable this year. Most of their scoring comes from inside the arc where only 28% of their shots come three point land. FYI the Pack are only shooting 23% of their shots from behind the arc. Wake has improved their field goal defense both inside and outside the arc as well as blocking more shots but they aren’t as likely to force turnovers or create steals.

Projected Starting Lineup:
#0 Cody Miller-McIntyre (6-3, 195, SO) – He’s on the court the most, has the most team possessions, takes the most shots, and has a decent 106 ORtg. He’s their QB but he’s also their main scorer, not only in shots but he draws a ton of fouls to get to the line while staying out of foul trouble himself. It would be best to give Barber some help guarding him and don’t put Lewis on him at all.
#13 Coron Williams (6-1, 175, SR) – Posting a terrific 128.6 ORtg while taking 24% of the team’s shots, 70% of his shots are 3’s (.418). Outside of that he doesn’t do much else. HINT. HINT.
#30 Travis McKie (6-7, 220, SR) – McKie is slowed by an ankle injury but is still playing. Nothing spectacular about his season, just putting up good, solid numbers all around.
#34 Tyler Cavanaugh (6-9, 230, SO) – Another solid player who shoots well from 2fg, defensive rebounding, and shoots FT’s well (.757). He has a tendancy to turn the ball over, draw as many fouls as he commits (which is a lot), and shoots the 3 ball too much for his percentage (.242).
#2 Devin Thomas (6-9, 245, SO) – Thomas plays around the basket. He goes hard after rebounds, on both ends, and shoots pretty good (.534). He hasn’t taken a single 3 so no point guarding him if he’s out there. He draws fouls while also committing them, basically another guy State needs to take advantage of by getting him into foul trouble quickly.

Bench: Arnaud William Adala Moto (6-6, 225, SO), Miles Overton (6-4, 210, FR), Madison Jones (6-1, 160, SO), Andre Washington (7-0, 240, SO), Aaron Rountree (6-8, 195, SO)

Outside of Washington posting a 100 ORtg, everyone else is pretty bad, so I’m looking forward to seeing some battles of the 7-footers tonight. Jones is the backup PG and while he has a high assist rate (26.4%) he has an even higher turnover rate (37.1%).

SO WHO HAS THE ADVANTAGE:

A Tempo Free Statistical look at the match up using pictures.

Key Code:
Hercules – (Top 10% in the nation) If someone ask if you’re a god you say YES!!!
Frank Beamer – (10-40%) Good but not great, still solid results.
Average Joe – (40-60%) Not good, Not bad, just average.
Polar Bear (offense) or Statue (defense) – (60-90%) Too painful to watch, must avert eyes.
Possum – (Bottom 10%) You might as well be dead because you’re playing like it.

KenPom predictor likes Wake Forest by 5 and I see no reason to doubt it at this point.

TIDBITS:

– NC State is 3-1 against Wake Forest under Mark Gottfried.

– NC State leads the all-time series with Wake Forest, 137-100. In its 238th all-time meeting, the series is the second-most frequent matchup in the ACC.

– Wake Forest is 18-6 against NC State at the Joel Coliseum, including an 86-84 win over the Wolfpack last season. The Deacons have taken six of the last nine at the venue.

Magic Number: 65
(2013-14 Season)
NC State is 11-1 when they have scored 65 or more points.
NC State is 0-4 when they have scored less than 65 points.
Wake Forest is 10-2 when they have scored 65 or more points.
Wake Forest is 1-3 when they have scored less than 65 points.

Improved shooting by Turner: Ralston Turner, who made 95 shots from 3-point range during his two seasons at LSU, leads NC State with 30 made 3-pointers. Turner scored a season high 21 points in the win over Detroit. He shot 6-for-8 from 3-point range and made his final five attempts on the night. He buried three treys against Northwestern for 13 points and made 4-for-7 from 3-point land in NC State’s game at Cincinnati. He is 12 for his last 23 from long range. Here’s a breakdown:

3FG-3FGA Pct.
First 8 Games 11-35 .314
Last 8 Games 19-34 .559

– Wake coach Jeff Bzdelik said senior forward Travis McKie, whose godfather is N.C. State staff member Dereck Whittenburg, has been slowed by an ankle injury for a few weeks. In the last five games, the only time McKie scored more than seven points was a 16-point outing against North Carolina.

Common Opponents:

Tennessee – NCSU (road) W 65-58; WFU (neutral) L 63-82
UNCG – NCSU (road) W 68-64; WFU (home) W 59-51
Virginia – NCSU (home) L 45-76; WFU (road) L 51-74
Pittsburgh – NCSU (home) L 62-74; WFU (road) L 65-80

News Stuff:

Brett Friedlander (starnewsonline.com)
Homebody Deacons vs. Road Warrior Wolfpack … something’s got to give

The contrast between the Deacons at home and on the road is startling.
Wake is shooting 45.5 percent, holding its opponents to just 37.6 percent from the floor, outrebounding the opposition 45-35 and averaging 78.5 points per game in its nine games at the Joel – all wins.

The numbers are virtually reversed in its three true road games, all losses, with the Deacons being held to just 36.8 percent shooting, allowing its opponents to make 45.6 percent of its shots, getting outrebounded 42-29 and scoring only 56.3 points per game.

When asked to explain the disparity following his team’s 74-51 drubbing at Virginia last Wednesday, Bzdelik had no answer.

“Obviously toughness, mental and physical toughness. Competitive spirit. Discipline,” Bzdelik said. “All those intangibles are truly tested when you’re away from home.”

They are traits that seem to come naturally for the Wolfpack, though if you ask Gottfried for the reason, he’s equally as mystified as to why.

We seem to play very sound basketball and we have had a great togetherness on the road,” said the State coach, whose Wolfpack has won at Tennessee, UNC Greensboro and Notre Dame in the last month. “We’ve played with great purpose and that’s something we need to continue to do.

“We’re defending as a team, five guys working together – the things you want to do every night. We’ve been able to have some poise, some resiliency, and bounce back when people make runs. You have to continue to do that to have a chance on Wednesday night.”

Bret Strelow (fayobserver.com)
N.C. State coach taking gentle approach with young Wolfpack

N.C. State coach Mark Gottfried described his team’s performance Saturday against Virginia as “pretty pitiful.”

He’s taking a positive approach with the Wolfpack (11-5, 1-2 ACC) as it prepares to play at Wake Forest (11-5, 1-2) Wednesday night.

“I’m not the kind of coach that beats my team down and berates them,” Gottfried said. “I’ve never believed in that. These are my guys; I recruited them. We had a difficult day, and we have to get ourselves back up and get ourselves ready to play on the road.”

[snip]

“This is not a veteran team,” Gottfried said. “We have to get our team into a very confident place, so we’re going to be really positive.”

Winning at Wake has proved difficult for road teams. The Demon Deacons haven’t lost any of their last 11 games at Joel Coliseum, and an 86-84 upset of N.C. State last season was one of several noteworthy results at home.

For the Wolfpack to bounce back, it needs a better showing from leading scorer T.J. Warren, who managed just four points on 1-for-9 shooting against Virginia. His previous season low was 13 points, and Wake coach Jeff Bzdelik said the Cavaliers limited his offensive production by forcing him to expend a lot of energy on the defensive end.

Warren wasn’t able to leak out and turn N.C. State rebounds into fastbreak opportunities.

Dan Collins (journalnow.com)
Deacons brace for showdown with Wolfpack

N.C. State’s dignity and pride will also be riding on the game. In its most recent game, played at home on Saturday, the Wolfpack was leveled 76-45 by Virginia for its most-decisive home loss since the arena now known as the PNC center opened in 1999-2000.

After watching Virginia score more points in the first half (48) than his team did the entire game, Coach Mark Gottfried was frank in his assessment. The Wolfpack finished with more turnovers (16) and fouls (17) than field goals (13).

“We were pitiful in the first half and basically, offensively, the whole game,” Gottfried said.

The Wolfpack shot 23 percent from the floor in the first half and 29 percent for the game, forced only seven turnovers, and was out-rebounded 40-28.

[snip]

Bzdelik said the Deacons have to be mindful of Warren beating them downcourt for layups.

“First of all he leaks out,” Bzdelik said. “He leaks and he streaks. He crashes the offensive boards. In the last several games he’s averaging about four-plus offensive rebounds a game. So he gets a lot of easy baskets.

“He gets easy baskets cause he’s leaking out, so he can leak and streak and run. He gets easy baskets through offensive board play. And he’s a talented scorer, especially in the mid-range area.”

Coron Williams of the Deacons, a graduate-student transfer from Robert Morris, missed Tuesday’s practice while nursing a sore ankle. Bzdelik said he fully expected Williams to be available for the Wolfpack.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home Forums NC State at Wake Forest Preview

This topic contains 231 replies, has 39 voices, and was last updated by  Mike 10 months, 1 week ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 232 total)
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  • #36902

    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    Tip Off: 9:00pm TV: ACC Network Announcers: Tim Brando, Dan Bonner Here’s to never seeing what happened Saturday night against UVA every happening aga
    [See the full post at: NC State at Wake Forest Preview]

    #36908

    tractor57
    Participant

    A sighting of “Boo Boo” Bonner. Been making jokes about him since he was a player in the conference. He has turned into a better than average color man (better than average isn’t saying much sadly). I like the possum meme – maybe the entire game should be classed that way for both teams.

    #36909

    Fastback68
    Participant

    Thanks for the write-up. State plays at Duke on Saturday and then at home versus Maryland on Monday. Short time period. To say this is a huge game is a captain obvious understatement. I wonder what Turner’s shooting percentage would be on squared-up, balanced shots. I’m praying for him to start working as hard as Scoot Wood did in terms of getting open for a shot. We also have games on March 1st and 3rd. I hope all of the other ACC teams have an equal number of short turnarounds. I want to have a positive Cat Attack tonight where my number of Yes! screams exceed my number of No! screams. Phrasing. Go Pack!!!

    #36910

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Thanks for the great summary

    “Road Warrior Wolfpack”…they had to stretch for this one.

    #36918

    wufpup76
    Participant

    I’m guessing we get slammed, but we’ll see.

    Wake can be like us in the “play them and get yourself right” department, so there may be hope yet.

    #36920

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Wake f-cking sucks. We will be in deep shite unless we win tonight.

    Yes, I am aware that this is the kind of game we historically DO lose.

    #36926

    MP
    Participant

    “I’m not the kind of coach that beats my team down and berates them,” Gottfried said.

    Ol’ DB would NOT approve of this statement.

    I hate to say it… Gritting my teeth… It seems too early… But…

    This game is a Must Win for State.

    #36927

    PoppaJohn
    Participant

    Great write-up! However, the chart is getting a little out of control. Or maybe it’s just me.

    Just like I said for the ND game, looking for positive signs of coaching. Get these guys’ confidence up, and the energy high. We can’t let UVA beat us twice.

    #36929

    JaxPackMan
    Participant

    Coach Gott was very descriptive and accurate of the teams play (or lack of it) against UVA. However, despite all of the many deficiencies that he pointed out in the post game interview I failed to hear any reasons why. All I heard was a fix for the next game — the nebulous better coaching, better playing, yadda, yadda, yadda. Did anyone else hear a real reason why the team played so badly?

    Sure, the guys are young. And you can’t make open shots that hit the rim go in. But even first and second year players should be able to run the offense that the coach wants. They need to quit thinking about their NBA tryouts and just run the offense, be monster rebounders, and defend like wolves.

    #36936

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    For Star Trek Fans

    #36937

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    The ultimate face palm

    #36939

    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    I agree it’s a tad busy and I’ll cut a few stats out next time. My hardest part is not coming up with images for the bad stats but the good ones.

    So I’ll take suggestions for teams ranked in the top 3:
    Top 10%, 10-25%, and 25-40%.

    VaWolf, classic face palms. I’m guessing that one will replace the block S as the official school logo before the end of the season.

    #36940

    JohnGalt78
    Participant

    History hates the Wolfpack. Winston Salem is where the Pack goes to lose. The UVA stench still surrounds this team. Obviously I have a really bad feeling about tonight. But I feel certain our guys can read and write.

    #36943

    vtpackfan
    Participant

    WF beats us in W-S in Football and Basketball.

    Is there a point questioning this anymore?

    Hopefully the disgust from Saturdays game (by the players since it’s c’est la vie for Gott) will keep us in there out of prides sake.

    #36944

    Wufpacker
    Keymaster

    Must win?

    Yeah, if we’re (still) expecting this team to make a run and become an NCAAT team then I suppose it probably is pretty close to a must win.

    #36945

    tjfoose1
    Participant

    I’m expecting ugly. At least I won’t be disappointed, either way (about the game, that is). I’m in Mississippi. Maybe that’s a good thing. Doubt I’ll bother to watch online.

    #36950

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Foose, just come back to this thread so we can all talk about how shitty Mississippi is. We had fun with that back in December.

    #36952

    Wufpacker
    Keymaster

    ‘Foose, if you find yourself heading thru Starkville, let me know.
    I might have ya pick me up a little something out by the stadium.
    How’s your ‘plant’ identification skills?

    Muahahahaha. :D

    #36954

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    NOT getting up for this one….
    … just let me know IF our coaches and our players both show up for the game ready to play some serious bball.

    then… I might watch the game.

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #36958

    Adventuroo
    Participant

    I have HIGH hopes of the repeat of the AR v. KY game last night. Talk about a rerun of what COULD have happened in 1983…

    Seriously, this will be a test. BUT, the final grade depends on MANY tests. Right now, it seems like we CRAM for one test….hen party and don’t bother to even go to class….then we fail that test and get uptight.

    I am so confused, that I don’t know if the above was about the UNC athletes or our team….but I hope I was clear.

    We need to be prepared for every TEST….and then go on. I have NO idea what happened with UVA….and sadly, I think that can be said of Coach Gott.

    ORW has been having this issue for years….maybe the virus is spreading.

    Mikey handles it differently. If any of HIS players get the “bug”, he knows how to kill it and prevent it from spreading to the REST of the team. He just invokes the KNIGHT Procedure and declares the patient dead and then orders he cremation….that pretty much scares the virus away….

    #36959

    redcanine
    Participant

    Oh, this is going to be a fun one…

    #36960

    choppack1
    Participant

    In basketball we do OK in Winston. We even beat them @ wake the year we were a 3 seed and they won regular season conference title.

    We won there at least once during Sidney era and won there gott’s first year.

    That said, I suspect we will lose this year.

    #36962

    Wufpacker
    Keymaster

    It appears the Irish ran out of gas in a big way in College Park.

    #36963

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    I always did like the way Coach Knight “treated the virus”….

    Most kids today just don’t want to understand that every Coach’s job is to get you do the things that you don’t yet know you can do AND the things that you don’t want to do that will make you an Allstar at what ever you’re doing.

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #36964

    john of sparta
    Participant

    bbb…..test
    ccc…….check.
    seems to be operational.
    WFU is the real deal.
    we’re not.

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