November Looms

Many of us have been discussing the Carolina loss and what it means for this season and TOB’s future. Please don’t mistake me for a staunch TOB supporter, but after giving it some thought, I’m not ready to fire him just yet. I’m willing to see how November plays out first because at 5-3 (2-2), with a quarter of the season remaining, I still think it’s too soon to draw any concrete conclusions.

The season isn’t over.

[All my buddies just double-checked the byline because there’s no way this is LRM]

Bear with me here as I try to rationalize.

SFN conducted two uber-scientific polls in the preseason. In the first poll, out of 666 votes cast, 292 members (44%) predicted that State would go to the Peach Bowl, while 120 members (18%) predicted the Orange Bowl. In the second poll, of 1,422 votes cast, 493 (44%) predicted we’d finish 5-3 in the conference, 436 (31%) predicted 4-4, while 233 (16%) predicted 6-2. Think about it this way: in the past 20 years, we’ve finished 6-2 only once (1994) and 5-3 only three times (1998, 2002, 2010).

Part of the problem is perception. When every 6-6 (and in the case of 2011 UCLA, 6-7) team gets a bowl, an eight-win season is considered mediocre, which is entirely fair (particularly in a weak ACC). Compounding this, after the Orange and Peach, the ACC bowl tie-ins just aren’t very attractive to fans, and so an eight- or nine-win season that ends in the Russell Athletic Bowl versus the Big East #3 is considered a letdown.

Look, I’m not making excuses here. Folks like me, who have shelled out way too much of our disposable income on WPC dues, LTRs and season tickets over the past decade trying to invest in the national prominence we were promised, don’t like to be told we need to temper our expectations of what this program should become. And many folks felt like this was our best opportunity under TOB, and that’s fair. But, if we want to be reasonable — not often our strength — then we must accept that this still has the potential to be a very good season.

With a very manageable November schedule — Virginia (2-6, 0-4), Wake Forest (4-4, 2-4) and Boston College (2-6, 1-4) all at home, and a road game at Clemson (7-1, 4-1) — it’s still possible for us to finish with eight or nine wins and go to to the Russell Athletic Bowl or even the Peach Bowl, which is right in line with where many of us realistically felt was our ceiling before the season. After the Miami loss, many of us probably would’ve considered 8-4 or 9-3 and either of these bowls quite the success. But then we beat Florida State and got lucky against Maryland and had control of our own destiny in the Atlantic (just like in 2010). So, naturally, being the volatile fan base we indeed are, we quickly re-calculated our expectations and set our sights on Charlotte and then Miami, and anything less would be disappointment.

Of course, our dream disintegrated (once again) on Saturday. Even worse, we’re now feeling the full brunt of the loss at Miami, where a win means that today we’re still in control of our destiny in the Atlantic. But, as November looms, we can still salvage a very good season, and with a lucky break, perhaps even a great one. With a little help from Virginia Tech (Blacksburg, Nov. 8) and/or Maryland (College Park, Nov. 17) against Florida State, then we could regain control of our own destiny in the Atlantic and could still win the ACC. We were always going to have to beat Clemson to win the Atlantic, so that hasn’t changed.

Even if we don’t win the Atlantic, with a strong finish we’ll be an attractive Peach Bowl option. Clemson is currently 13th in the BCS standings with a game remaining against South Carolina (8th), so if they win out, and assuming Florida State wins the Atlantic and then the ACC, then Clemson may become an at-large BCS team, which would open up the Peach Bowl to an 8-4 N.C. State. Now, it’s a cloudy scenario because beating Clemson would likely push them into the Peach Bowl.

Moreover, an eight-win season would mean the first consecutive three-year stretch of eight-plus wins since the days of TheCowDog and Lou Holtz from 1972-74. Dick Sheridan never did it. Now, I agree that eight wins nowadays isn’t the same as it was 20 years ago, when seven-win teams routinely stayed home. But, it perhaps means we can begin putting a transition plan in place to implement what Daily Update calls “The Frank Beamer Virginia Tech Plan.”

And I’m not suggesting we should lower our expectations; quite the contrary. All I’m saying is we — myself included — can be reasonable about a third consecutive eight-win season (for the first time in 40 years) not being the disaster it felt like Saturday evening. At the very least, for the first time in over two decades, it shows sustained progress. Sure, there’s plenty of work to be done. We all know we can’t make the leap with three-star talent and we can always expect TOB to frustrate and confound us with some of his in-game decisions; and we’re going to lose games we shouldn’t lose and win games we shouldn’t win. And if we’d beaten Carolina Saturday this would be a moot discussion. But, if we finish 8-4 or better, then it’s tough to argue we aren’t better off as a program, relatively speaking, than we we’ve been at any point in the past two decades. And that’s the exact reason we hired a guy like TOB — to get us in a good spot to move on to the next guy.

Besides, if we don’t win eight games and end up in El Paso, then we can rest easy knowing none of that will matter when we’re in Atlanta on April 8th.

About LRM

Charter member of the Lunatic Fringe and a fan, loyal to a fault.

'12 Football Tom O'Brien

49 Responses to November Looms

  1. primacyone 10/30/2012 at 11:26 AM #

    I’m pretty sure I had the 8-4 expectation this year with 5-3 in conference. Have to remind myself of that as of right now – I don’t have any reason to bitch when it comes to overall record.

    It’s just so hard not to bitch when we lose the way we have lost this year. Individual games have been the microsim of the entire season last year. Such roller coasters, and it’s so hard to understand yet it seems so obvious. I’m surprized TOB hasn’t had a heart attack standing on the sideline. Can’t imagine him sleeping well this year.

    Is a consistant 8-4 record no matter how it is earned good enough? History tells us it is that’s a pretty dang good year.

    It just sucks to be so close and not be able to get to the top.

  2. Prowling Woofie 10/30/2012 at 11:46 AM #

    We are playing an awful Virginia team this weekend, at home, for Homecoming. It would please me to no end for Dana Bible to open a can on them, and leave it open until the clock reads 0:00. If he’s capable. I’d love to know if he is able to implement the “it’s your job to stop us” philosophy.

    I seem to recall Terry Kirby dragging our butts up and down Carter Finley one freezing, rainy day, to the tune of 42-10, or something like that. We still owe them…

  3. Cabin Creek Wolf 10/30/2012 at 12:14 PM #

    Okay. Now that I’ve calmed down, I’d like to first make an apology, and secondly I’d like to piggyback on what a few others are saying.

    The apology: Since I had to remain sober in order to go to my niece’s b-day party later that afternoon, I must’ve been drunk with rage during the last 1:30 of the game on Saturday. I could’ve sworn NC State ran the ball 3-straight times during that last offensive series. How the F did I miss attempting a pass on 1st down? As Napoleon Dynamite would say, “Idiot!” Anyways. I went on an unjust tangent about how TOB wussed out. I was wrong. After the sack, it was the right call to run it a couple times and hope for OT by punting to unc. But then, as the saying goes, “Gio” happens. What I learned from that is apparently I need oxygen and valium when watching NCSU vs unc. 😀

    Secondly, I had yesterday off of work, and since I had to be inside instead of doing repair work to the exterior of my garage, I watched a replay of the NCSU 2003 game against UVA while cleaning the house.

    While watching that game, I thought about how it wasn’t long after that win that everything began to fall apart under the CTC era. Later on in that season, NC State would lose in 2OT against FSU and then came the gut tearing loss to UMd at home that I witnessed. All NCSU fans know what happened after Rivers left. Everything went down the proverbial crapper. A 15-20 record and a bare cupboard of player depth and plenty of knuckleheaded mistakes, silly quotes, and red shoes to accompany it all.

    NC State is in much better shape now than at anytime during the era of CTC. NC State fans better be happy for being able to go to bowl games and have a chance to win 8-9 games. NOT saying NC State fans should settle and not want to win 9-10 to then 10-11 games a year. But what I am saying is it takes time to build a consistent winner (a la Beamer at VT) in football when NC State is not and never has been a top program in the NCAA. Besides, no program in the ACC has been other than FSU, UM and VT.

    On a final note: Either way, I still like using Herm Edwards’ rant.

  4. albunde6 10/30/2012 at 1:08 PM #

    Deacon Blues, fully admit that I was one of the alumni calling for 8-4 and a clean program. CTC was a piece of work. Was tired of the “off the field crap”.

    I think we as fans and alumni care about the quality of the win and the quality of the loss. In our minds we expect to loss to FSU, in our hearts we know anything is possible.

    The team needs to beat UNX to keep me Cabin Creek out of the medicine cabinet.

  5. albunde6 10/30/2012 at 1:24 PM #

    The 2 million dollar question is how can the talent we have beat FSU, but lose to UNX.

  6. JasonP 10/30/2012 at 1:27 PM #

    Nice article.

    This isn’t about “accepting our place,” but rather about building a program. Despite his mistakes, which is easy for every single armchair quarterback to complain about, TOB has us going in the right direction.

  7. Trout 10/30/2012 at 1:31 PM #

    “The 2 million dollar question is how can the talent we have beat FSU, but lose to UNX.”

    1)Game was on the road. Going on the road in college football is always an adventure for any team other than the very top teams.

    2)Rivalry game. UNC was up for it, we had won 5 in a row – this was the last meaningful game for UNC this year.

    3)I doubt FSU took us as serious as they should have, and if you think TOB made coaching errors in the UNC game I think it would pale in comparison to the coaching errors made by Jimbo in the NC State/FSU game.

  8. LRM 10/30/2012 at 1:36 PM #

    ^ Agree. Jimbo lost that game. The second half game plan was terrible.

  9. old13 10/30/2012 at 2:51 PM #

    I’m not ready to can TOB. He is excellent with the classroom and community aspects of the program. But I do think he needs to listen to his own preaching – get better each and every day. He does need to improve recruiting, game planning, game management, and in-game decision making, upgrading the coaching staff if needed to do that. I do think that he is a program builder, although IMO, not an elite program builder. But you need a program builder first to get to be an elite program. So his staying through the run of his contract is OK with me assuming he continues at the 8-9+ win level with a bowl game annually at a minimum plus makes some significant improvements in his coaching as previously noted.

    BUT why can’t we expect more of the program for the future? NCSU is a world class university. Our fans are The Best! We’ve got excellent facilities lacking only an indoor practice facility which IMO will come sooner rather than later. C-F is expandable to accommodate growing ticket sales. And we have an excellent AD who knows how to identify and hire excellent coaching talent. But, then, isn’t this what DY has basically set as the goal for all NCSU athletics. Consistently being a Top 25 team with excursions into the Top 10 is the next step as I see it, not making the Pack elite in football, but certainly moving in that direction. And with a good (not great) program established, the right coach succeeding TOB could continue that improvement toward the elite. Trouble is, I’m getting too old to wait long for all of that to happen!

  10. doug 10/30/2012 at 2:56 PM #

    I hate losing period no matter how or to who. However as I said after the game I remember many seasons just begging for 6 or 7 wins just to make a bowl. I dreamed of a having a chance to win a ACC Title. We still can, I for one have never given up in almost 40 years.

  11. Radman 10/30/2012 at 3:22 PM #

    We will remain an 8-4 type program under TOB. He is not going to win championships. Never has. Never will. With TOB you know just what you are gonna get for the year….you just don’t know what bumps there will be along the road.

    This is a good run for State considering our football history. I would like to win championships in football but I don’t expect it.

    Maybe TOB is laying the groundwork upon which the next coach can challenge for a championship…but TOB won’t win it.

  12. 66pack 10/30/2012 at 4:45 PM #

    8-4 record stinks for there is only one good win.Hell,we may not have a 8-4

  13. 808WOLF 10/30/2012 at 4:53 PM #

    Does anybody know whats up with the Belmont Abby game? Is the admission free?

  14. albunde6 10/30/2012 at 5:16 PM #

    How does a loss to unx help us recruit?

  15. wolfpack4ever 10/30/2012 at 9:13 PM #

    There have been some good points made in this discussion thread. I have no problem with that at all. There are always good discussions on this site.

    However, nothing stated above has changed my mind about TOB and staff. We are still happy with mediocrity in football. Multiple teams go to bowl games now at 6 – 6 and come home with a 6 – 7 record after a loss. There are so many crappy bowl games now it’s pathetic.

    Finishing at 8 – 4 with at least one win over a non-bcs school and maybe a pizza bowl or helicopter bowl win is just not where I think that we should strive to be.

    We were not happy with mediocrity in basketball. Now we are all excited. If we took the same approach in basketball and accepted our status quo, we would still have the desert fox. I would have given in to complete apathy.

    If most think that TOB & staff’s declining recruiting results and techmo bowl play calling will leave a good base for the next coach in a year or two… I will just have to agree to disagree.

    I don’t have the big bucks to significantly affect change, but I will still support the players as I have for years. Just not this bungling coaching staff.

    As always… Go Pack!

  16. Codebrown 10/30/2012 at 10:16 PM #

    Don’t take away our outrage, man. It’s all we have after that spectacular calamity. I just want to play TOB that sound bite from the great Herm Edwards: “You play to win the game!”

  17. ldr of the pk 75 10/30/2012 at 11:11 PM #

    ” There are so many crappy bowl games now it’s pathetic.”

    A result of the “everyone gets a trophy” philosophy?

  18. ldr of the pk 75 10/30/2012 at 11:32 PM #

    “November Looms”!! Like how?

    Other than Clemson, our 3 other November opponents have a combined record of 3-9 conference, 11-16 overall. Hardly a resume builder at this point, and nothing a team building in the right direction should be worried about anyway.

    But, I’m betting some are worried we lose one of those three to go along with a Clemson loss. At 4-4, 7-5, where would that put us going into what some are already characterizing as a rebuilding year in 2013?

  19. Wulfpack 10/31/2012 at 7:39 AM #

    A loss to Clemson or one of the other three crappy teams we have left on the schedule and we are exactly where most thought we would be. The debate is whether that is a good thing or a bad thing. Many thought this would be the year we break through. It is still possible, though unlikely. You are either happy with TOB’s results or you are not. Can we do better? That is the big question. I am certain DY believes we can.

  20. Cabin Creek Wolf 10/31/2012 at 9:19 AM #

    Clemson’s playing lights out. Not saying NC State can’t beat Clemson, but I’d cast some serious doubt about it.

    There’s absolutely no reason whatsoever to lose to any of the remaining teams on the schedule not named Clemson. UVA is awful. BC is pathetic. WF is the one that should worry everyone. The Deacs aren’t good. But we all know how a matchup between NC State and WF is capable of producing a WTF result for all of Wolfpack Nation.

    8-4 ain’t bad. 7-5 would be extremely disappointing.

  21. gweedoh79 10/31/2012 at 10:47 AM #

    I believe Albert Einstein is credited with defining insanity as “doing the same thing the same way and expecting different results”. When TOB starts “bench coaching” (as opposed to standing straight with arms folded and talking to no one but himself) to expect different results than those we have seen in tight games over the past six years is, as defined, insane.

  22. groupthink 10/31/2012 at 11:56 AM #

    its easy to be a fan when you are winning every game. the real fans stick with their team through the highs and lows. when the coaches are allowed to call the plays and catch passes maybe then the naysayers will fall silent. i know that i dont want a fedora defense for my team. i like our staff and i see continuous improvement. we should have beaten those guys but you have to catch those balls. i think we win out. at least i will be pulling for it. lets hope that va tech steps up and plays fla st tough.

  23. Tuffy2 10/31/2012 at 11:01 PM #

    I am just wondering if by some slim chance we go 4-0 and FSU gets a loss would TOB retire at the end of the season. Of course we win the ACC also. TOB knows this is the best team he will have until his contract runs out. The man would want to walk into the sunset with a championship and nothing less. Maybe just getting to the championship and winning the Atlantic might do it. Everyone at that point would be happy and begin the search for his replacement

  24. groupthink 11/01/2012 at 8:37 AM #

    i ,for 1, would be very unhappy with that decision. try to remember “you throw to catch the ball”.

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