Why State Can/Will Win in Cameron

I will preface this by reminding everyone that I am the furthest thing from a wild-eyed optimist. I also don’t think this Wolfpack team is really that good (which is why I see ACC COY as a two-man race between Gottfried and Bennett, the two coaches who have gotten the absolute maximum out of rather limited personnel). So…how can I predict a win next Thursday at Duke? Especially in light of how choppy State’s play has been over the past several weeks?

First, with all top tier ACC squads having fatal flaws – I give great weight to matchups. And NC State matches up every bit as well with Duke as it matches up poorly with UNC. Though Carolina matches up poorly with Duke (as I predicted via e-mail to one of my Hole fan friends, I suspected UNC would be too stubborn to be as physical with Duke as they needed to be). NC State doesn’t have the talent luxury to be so stubborn. It also has three quite physical bigs to rotate in the lowpost. Physical play annoys the Devils, and interrupts their flow. And offensive flow is really Duke’s only card to play. Without that, they are an extremely average team, as they showed against physical defensive teams like Temple, Ohio State, Florida State, and even Miami.

Second, NC State has a full week to prepare for this game, and get rested in advance of a physical war. CJ Williams can get healthy. Lorenzo Brown can sleep and hopefully regain full confidence. DeShawn Painter can get over the flu. Side note – the rest of the team had damned well better have gotten their flu shots.

Duke, on the other hand, has another emotional game today. So…no rest, either physically or mentally. Assuming a win over the Terps (a loss today would blow up the Pack’s chances completely), the Devils will enter Thursday night coming off two emotional wins over teams they hate. Could there be any better a setup for a letdown? Is this not the perfect example of a “trap” game? And when the Pack’s physicality predictably annoys them, won’t things probably snowball further? I certainly think so.

Finally, although I believe NC State – like Virginia – is a “low ceiling” team in the ACC’s “reasonably good” tier…that doesn’t mean the Pack is incapable of having an especially good game and playing over their heads. And thus far, our timing has been pretty good (see State’s top effort of the year, resulting in its best resume win at Miami). In that sense, the lackluster play of the past few weeks is actually a positive sign – State can’t play like a good team every night, and picked a good time to be “due.”

Now, this is not to say that an upset is a lead-pipe cinch. Just because NC State is “due” for a good performance doesn’t mean it 100% will happen. Lorenzo Brown could get in foul trouble. Scott Woo could have a poor night shooting (and/or the man he’s guarding could score 50 instead of 20). Duke could lose today and come out loaded for bear. CJ Williams could tweak his shoulder early. Calvin Leslie could decide he needs to showcase his perimeter “skills” for NBA scouts.

But it’s all about possibilities, isn’t it? And Thursday night marks NC State’s best possibility of the 2011-12 season. It certainly won’t be on short rest (and a poor matchup) against the Noles, or the nightmare matchup against the Holes (anytime or anywhere). Very few commentators will expect it to happen in Cameron Indoor Stadium, either. But now, you know better.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

Big Four Rivals NCS Basketball

56 Responses to Why State Can/Will Win in Cameron

  1. state73 02/11/2012 at 3:20 PM #

    I believe we have a chance against dook unless Roger Ayers shows up to ref.

  2. BJD95 02/11/2012 at 3:21 PM #

    I think FSU is a bad matchup because they will keep us off the glass. They are physical like us, but taller, deeper, and more veteran. Plus, they play good perimeter defense. They can’t kill us with transition offense like the Holes

    But still a bad matchup. When you factor in the short turnaround (the schedule makers giveth, and the schedule makers taketh away) it’s almost as long a shot as UNC. ,

  3. BJD95 02/11/2012 at 3:24 PM #

    And please, let’s not pre-emptively bitch about the reffing. It’s bad enough how much we do it in real time. 🙂

    Now, I’m not saying the officiating is good in the ACC. It’s not. But while I’ve seen much incompetence, I haven’t seen nearly as much blue-tinted favoritism this year as in the past.

  4. MP 02/11/2012 at 5:16 PM #

    OK, We’re not supposed to bitch about officiating… Based on what I just saw, Stogill had to get fouled three times on a drive down the lane, including Duke players literally laying both hands on an arm, before a ref finally blew the whistle.

    That, and Duke’s shooting, will indeed be tough to overcome. But what the heck, I believe!!

  5. wolfonthehill 02/11/2012 at 5:54 PM #

    Thinkpack – When I saw he’s weak, I’m talking about offensively… where he absolutely fails to utilize his size and strength. He goes up soft for every single damn shot – and I’ve grown completely weary of watching him get swatted instead of taking it up strong.

    And defensively, instead of using his size, he reaches/swats – and gets in foul trouble for it.

    Sure, guys will bounce off him on rebounds – but that’s about the extent of it.

  6. state73 02/11/2012 at 6:17 PM #

    No pre-emptive bitching about the refs?? When a ref walks into your huddle during a time out and blows his whistle, the classless s.o.b. has no business being an offical in the ACC. But what do you expect with the commish and the head of officals?

  7. Rick 02/11/2012 at 6:40 PM #

    “I think FSU is a bad matchup because they will keep us off the glass. They are physical like us, but taller, deeper, and more veteran. Plus, they play good perimeter defense. They can’t kill us with transition offense like the Holes”

    I think they will struggle with the offense we run. I may be wrong but if Snaer is not hitting his three I think we win the game.
    They are physical but we like physical so I am not sure that plays in their favor.

  8. BJD95 02/11/2012 at 6:41 PM #

    Perhaps I would much rather the discussion be more robust, analytical, and interesting than “the refs will job us, it’s hopeless.” Just not productive, in my view. Certainly boring.

    Perfect result for us – Duke was sloppy and sort of coasted…yet still won by a good working margin. Breeding ground for complacency. I like our chances a great deal.

  9. Wulfpack 02/11/2012 at 6:45 PM #

    Miles Plumlee with 22 boards today. If that happens, we have little chance.

    Agree that Howell needs to be much more physical. He has the strength but doesn’t seem to use it consistently.

    FSU is a tough match-up. We do not like physical play (see UNC and Cuse). We’re much better going up and down than getting stuck in a half court battle.

  10. tuckerdorm1983 02/11/2012 at 7:10 PM #

    if we hit our threes and hold them to under say 8 threes, then we have a chance. Their guards like to break you down and get in the lane. If we go around missing lots of shots and not getting rebounds, then case closed. I will watch this game with very little expectation.

  11. James 02/11/2012 at 7:45 PM #

    I was happy to see Miles Plumlee grab 22 boards today. At least in my mind that makes it less likely he will come out and play the game of his life against us. Another Duke player will have to come out of the woodwork and play that role.

  12. tuckerdorm1983 02/11/2012 at 8:03 PM #

    yall need to watch this and keep watching this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HX-9PUE5og

    do give up, don’t ever give up

  13. logarithm 02/11/2012 at 8:17 PM #

    I heard Lunatic Fringe on the sound system outside of my Harris Teeter tonight. I thought of you guys.

  14. john of sparta 02/11/2012 at 9:46 PM #

    bottom line:
    score enough to
    take the refs out.

  15. xphoenix87 02/11/2012 at 9:54 PM #

    Were it not for the extreme problem of the three-point shooting, I’d share your optimism. We’ve been terrible defending the 3, and Duke shoots it well and often. If we don’t close out, we’re done for.

    If we can keep them from killing us on threes and limit Rivers’ penetration, we have a chance.

  16. tvp1 02/11/2012 at 11:20 PM #

    BJD, if you get this call right I will never doubt you again. I agree we match up better, much better, against the dark blues than the light blues. But I don’t think the Sid/Herb tendency to shrink in big games has left this program yet.

    I am already looking ahead to FSU. I feel good about winning that one in the same way I felt good about beating UVa – a game we would win 8 times out of 10 at home, just happened to catch UVa on a night where their scrubs couldn’t miss. Remember that FSU also plays Thursday night, and they have a long trip for the Saturday day game – advantage State. Plus that team, Duke aside, has dropped some absolute shitters on the road.

  17. Thinkpack17 02/11/2012 at 11:53 PM #

    I think you guys need to remember Rich is 6-8…and can’t jump. Our point guard is 6-5. Just sayin, all this talk about using his size more effectively is a little crazy to me.

    We don’t need Howell to push the Plumlees under the basket rise and dunk on them…frankly…he can’t. We need him to offensive rebound, get some put backs, keep them off the glass and maybe hit a few mid range jumpers. That’s it. If you want more from Rich, you’ve got the wrong guy.

    How many big men in our league are more physical than Howell? James? Johnson? It’s tough to put too many people ahead of him in that category.

  18. Cincinnati Wolf 02/12/2012 at 12:02 AM #

    I think we should get DeThaey some minutes banging underneath to save Howell from fouling out. Coach also needs to tell Richard that if he runs out beyond the 3 point line trying to make a steal one more time he’ll have to run laps.

  19. 61Packer 02/12/2012 at 12:16 AM #

    Our problem at Duke is going to be turnovers, because Duke is still Duke when it comes to defense and we don’t have a player who can really hold onto the ball. Brown is a good guard but he’s not a point guard because he’s too sloppy and makes way too many bad passes.

    And until we get a real point guard, road games against good teams who play really good defense are going to be painful for us.

  20. xphoenix87 02/12/2012 at 2:49 AM #

    “Our problem at Duke is going to be turnovers, because Duke is still Duke when it comes to defense”

    Actually, Duke’s problem this year is that they really haven’t still been Duke defensively. According to Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, they’ve had a top 20 defense each of the last 9 years, and most of those they’re in the top 10. This year? They’re ranked 99th. You can beat Duke’s guards off the dribble. You can bully them down low. If Lorenzo can get his head on straight, I think this is a game he could really dominate.

  21. Gene 02/12/2012 at 11:55 AM #

    As far as people up thread stating we need to hit three’s, I think it’s more that someone other than Scott Wood has to hit a three point shot, such as Williams, Brown and even Alex Johnson.

    Also, who ever is guarding Kelly needs to stick with him, because he can hit three point shots.

    Sigh..what would be good game prep is having an open practice/scrimmage at Reynolds. Give out tickets, but require people wear blue. Hope 7,000 people show up and scream as loudly as possible.

    About as close to the environment at Cameron as you can possibly get anywhere in the country.

  22. CaptainCraptacular 02/12/2012 at 12:34 PM #

    BJD, FSU also has a very short turnaround. Thursday night game followed by the trip to Raleigh for the 1pm Saturday game. I’m hopeful their game vs VT goes into double OT, and that they will have legs a tad more tired than ours.

    As for Duke, I’m worried that they are just going to kill us on the offensive glass. We don’t block out all that well and the Plumlees just eat that up.

  23. BJD95 02/12/2012 at 1:02 PM #

    True – the Noles have the detriment of having to travel, but that’s offset somewhat by their deeper player rotation.

    I like the idea of using DeThaey in a “hack-a-Plumlee” role. You get five fouls, might as well use them.

  24. Rick 02/12/2012 at 1:03 PM #

    “Our problem at Duke is going to be turnovers, because Duke is still Duke when it comes to defense”

    Not this year’s Duke team. They do not put pressure on like past teams

  25. eas 02/12/2012 at 1:26 PM #

    I like the idea of just using DaThaey in general. We need to see these young guys a little every game if we expect to last through any tourney at all. Our team is usually exhausted with our minimum 7-8 man rotation.

    I still don’t get Howell and what motivates him (if there is anything).

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