The Roadmap to Charlotte

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There seems to be a lot of confidence from the SFN faithful that we’ll cruise to a 10-win season in Tom O’Brien’s fifth season. I’ve been a State fan far too long to be that optimistic, especially considering we’ve got to figure out how to successfully traverse at least a couple of our regular obstacles.

Here’s the roadmap for how we get to Charlotte on December 3rd:

Win in Winston-Salem. We’ve won exactly once in Winston since 1995, and that was a decade ago, with the Great Philip Rivers (2001). Our games against Wake Forest at BB&T Field have been some of our worst; in my freshman year in 1997, we lost on a Thursday night when we failed to convert on a fourth-and-goal late in the game; in 1999, a few weeks after winning in Austin, we were taken behind the woodshed; in 2003, we were caught looking ahead to Columbus the following week; in 2005, 2007, and 2009 we were simply outcoached and outplayed. None of us seem to understand why we play so horribly at BB&T, considering it’s kind of like a smaller version of Kenan whenever State plays there.

Win in October. Tom O’Brien is a paltry 4-11 at State during October. Last season (2-2, 2-1 ACC) was a stark improvement over the 0-8 October winless streak in 2008 and 2009. Although State collapsed in the second half against Virginia Tech and couldn’t complete the comeback after we sputtered early at East Carolina, we responded after each of those losses with wins over Boston College and then Florida State. We’ve played Florida State four times in October under TOB, and we’re 1-3 against them, after we finally broke through last year. This October, we’ll play Georgia Tech at home, and then go on the road to play Virginia and Florida State in a stretch that could quickly end our hopes of playing in Charlotte.

Win in Charlottesville. Like BB&T Field, Scott Stadium has been a veritable abyss for State, lowlighted by either the 62-14 loss in 1996 or the 14-9 loss in 2002 (our third consecutive after starting the season 9-0). Wondering how long it’s been since we last won at Virginia? It was 30-27 in the 1994 season finale, on the old artificial turf, when Tremayne Stephens opened the second half with an 84-yard touchdown run and finished the day with 133 yards in the victory that propelled us to the Peach Bowl.

Win at Boston College. We’ve never done this before, and this year we go there late in the season, on their Senior Day, a week after playing Carolina, where we may be bloodied from numerous cheap shots (1:33 mark).

Beat Clemson. We last beat Clemson on a Thursday night way back in 2003. This series has been ugly since. In 2005, Clemson racked up nearly 500 yards of offense and chased most of the Thursday night Carter-Finley crowd out in the 3rd quarter; in 2006, Daniel Evans was only 10/24 for 95 yards while C.J. Spiller rushed for 154 yards; in 2007, Evans, Beck and Burke each threw interceptions and Clemson won by three touchdowns; in 2008, Russell Wilson was only 10/21 for 92 yards and our only touchdown was a pick-six by Nate Irving on the first play from scrimmage; and then, last year, the week after beating Florida State on Thursday night on ESPN, we went to Clemson in control of our own destiny when, late in the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, around midfield, needing only a single yard on fourth down, with the ACC’s best quarterback, we punted.

Beat Maryland in the season finale. Carolina is our rival and we hate them, sure; but Maryland is our bugaboo. My buddy Alvin says, “You can make a valid argument that they have opportunistically kept us from being a top tier football program.” You could argue with him, but you’d be wrong. In 2001, they prolongued the game with “injuries” that put them into position for the winning field goal, and then showered the field with oranges; in 2003, T.A. McClendon fumbled while trying to burn clock and then Nick Novak kicked a 43-yard field goal with seconds remaining to ruin Philip’s Senior Day; in 2007, with our bowl eligibility on the line, they beat us 37-0; and, of course, there was last year’s debacle in College Park.

Seems simply enough, right? Just do all of the above, and also sneak a win out of Tallahassee, and we should be set for a roadtrip to Charlotte on December 3rd.

About LRM

Charter member of the Lunatic Fringe and a fan, loyal to a fault.

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58 Responses to The Roadmap to Charlotte

  1. packfaninva 08/26/2011 at 2:06 PM #

    This was a great read! It sums up what it’s like to be a State Fan. I always tell myself not to get excited, but it never fails that I get my hopes up and become optimistic only to have my hopes and dreams dashed by the likes of Maryland, Wake, Duke and/ or Clemson. I wouldn’t have it any other way, though.

    As for TOB, I’ve said since the beginning that we got another Herb Sendek. Good coach, runs a good program, we’ll win some good games but we’ll never get to the next level and he’ll never win the games he needs to. If you can’t figure out the theme of the last statement, I’ll sum it up for you: GOOD, not great.

    Once again I have my hopes up that we’ll hit the 10 win mark this year. Only time will tell.

  2. TruthBKnown Returns 08/26/2011 at 2:33 PM #

    packfaninva, the only part I take issue with is your assertion that TOB is the Herb Sendek of college football. TOB has built winning programs before. He had a huge rebuilding project at State when he arrived, and win nine games in his fourth season. The only thing that prevented even more success sooner was a crazy influx of injuries combined with lack of depth, the latter of which he could not fix overnight. It takes years to get a football team where a coach wants it. I believe we are finally there now, and we’ll see the fruits of that this season.

    TOB may not get us to the top-10 in the nation on a regular basis. I think to get to that level, there’s only so much “coaching up” will do for you. It takes THE best talent, and in most cases, that “best talent” is thugs that will get your program on probation. I don’t think we really want that at NC State, do we? If we’re consistently winning 9+ games and going to bowls, and recruiting is going well, we will have occasional seasons where we flirt with the top-10. Because TOB will eventually get some of those top players, but ones that meet his criteria and will not turn out to be thugs.

    Herb was nothing of this sort. Herb’s system was to recruit players that fit into a system that would beat a lot of teams on a lot of days, but would rarely beat the best teams. His ceiling was on the bubble and squeaking into the dance due to padding our win total with cupcake wins. Then we lose early in the dance. That was the best we could hope for with Herb. That was his ceiling here, and he’s already shown that is his ceiling at ASU. That is his ceiling, period.

    With TOB, we have hope for at least that, and occasionally more. That’s the way I see it. Give TOB a taste of success this year, and we’ll see recruiting pick up. And his disciplined teams will win games and bowls for us. And once in a while, I think a conference championship.

    No offense, but IMO the two just don’t even compare.

  3. GAWolf 08/26/2011 at 7:33 PM #

    I just read this again, laughed, shook my head in agreement, and realized again what fantastic analysis this is. There’s literally no one in the traditional media putting this sort of work together… No one. Nice job, LRM.

  4. tjfoose1 08/26/2011 at 10:17 PM #

    Funny. In today’s posting,”Faurina’s Five”, the Statefans author rightfully ridicules Faurina for using past facts that have nothing to do with the 2011 football season as a basis for his 2011 predictions.

    Here, the statefan author is credited by some with brilliant analysis for doing the exact same thing.

    No disrespect to LRM, I liked the piece. It was informative and gave HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, but I doubt even he intended it as actual analysis of the likelihood of the Packs failure or success.

    C’mon guys, its 2011. We have new, talented, and competent leadership (on campus anyway). We’re on the way up. Our football program is solid, and overall, is in much better shape than it was at this time last year. Some of you are much smarter than me, I’m surprised by some of these comments.

    LRM’s piece is exactly what he titled it, nothing more. A step by step roadmap of what the Pack needs to do to get to Charlotte.

  5. packfaninva 08/26/2011 at 11:23 PM #

    TruthBKnown Returns, I respect your opinion. I am a State Fan, have always been a State Fan and will always be a State Fan. I like TOB, but I don’t think he has what it takes to win the big games. Most of the big games we have lost, we have been outcoached more so than outplayed. The defense 2 years ago was one of the worst defenses I have ever seen. What did TOB do? Nothing! If it wasn’t for a former Carolina coach, the D last year would have been just as terrible. I just think that TOB will leave us in a better position than we were in, but I don’t expect too much out of him.

  6. Packfan28 08/27/2011 at 7:15 AM #

    LRM mentions the decision to punt on 4th and 1 late in the game at Clemson. Here is the most critical play in our season:

    8 minutes to go in the 2nd qtr. against VT. We are moving the ball at will, the crowd is going nuts, we’re winning 17 – 0, and VT is completely out of it. After a long gain by Moose to get us into VT’s territory, TOB calls a surprise end around to TJ Graham. It fools everybody, and TJ could practically walk down the field into the end zone. Instead he fumbles the ball, falls on it and loses 7 yards. Two plays later RW throws an interception, Tyrod rips off a 75 yard run, and instead of 24 – 0 and a deflated VT team, it is 17-7, and VT has the momentum. Damn.

  7. TruthBKnown Returns 08/31/2011 at 12:56 PM #

    packfaninva, most State fans are with you about our defense. I don’t know anyone that thinks Mike Archer is any good. We have Tenuta now, and I think many credit our defensive improvement to him, not Archer.

    But two years ago, that atrocious defense was mainly because of our youth. We had kids out there that didn’t even line up correctly. Some of the blame goes to Archer, and some goes to the youth and inexperience in our 2009 secondary.

    I’m not sure what TOB could have done differently that season. I’m sure he would have loved to have had some upper classmen on the team, but our young kids had to take their licks. And it was ugly. You’re right about that.

    But look where we are now in relation to where we were then. We’re going to have a stout defense this year.

  8. runwiththepack 09/01/2011 at 3:56 PM #

    Packfan28,

    Yeah. That was a KILLER.

    But, to be clear for those who weren’t there – When Russell Wilson threw that INT, IT WAS IN THE VT END ZONE!

    That’s how close it was to being 24-0. I would venture to say that NCSU would likely have won that game, even if NCSU had to settle for a field goal for a 20-0 lead.

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