Joe Giglio has been hard at work compiling a â€˜by the numbersâ€™ analysis comparing NC Stateâ€™s Tom Oâ€™Brien with UNCâ€™s Chief *# Butch Davis. The two points I can make for Coach Oâ€™Brien are:
(1) I am very glad he gets to play Carolina every year!
(2) Is there something we can do to get four bye-weeks in the month of October?
You really should take a look at the chart; it is great work. The "winning record" under I-A opponents are teams that finished the season with a winning record, "losing record" indicates teams that finished the season with a losing record.
The following are some conclusions drawn by Giglio:
â€¢ O’Brien is 7-2 against the Coastal Division but 2-13 against the Atlantic. It’s one thing to be winless against FSU, BC and Clemson but a collective 2-4 against Maryland and Wake? Not good.
The flip side, of course, is a 5-0 mark against UNC and Miami, two of the most talented programs in the ACC. (Aside: My guess is that the Duke loss from last season still keeps O’Brien up at night. Given Duke’s recent history, it’s not a stretch to reason O’Brien should be 8-1 against the Coastal â€” with only a no-chance loss at VT).
O’Brien and Davis are a combined 5-0 against Miami but 0-4 against FSU. You think either one was happy to see Bobby Bowden retire (or that Randy Shannon was given a contract extension)?
â€¢ Even if you take away the four I-AA gimmes, Davis is a respectable 10-6 at home with quality wins over Miami (twice), Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Boston College.
Take away O’Brien’s four gimmes and he’s 8-12 at home.
You have to win your home games in college football. Period. There’s no two ways around it.
â€¢ What happens to O’Brien between October and November? Injuries certainly are a factor, and are an overarching theme to all of O’Brien’s numbers, but that’s a pretty wide discrepancy â€” 2-8 in October vs. 8-4 in November?
Improvement is one thing, and in O’Brien’s case commendable, but there’s also something to be said for consistency.
â€¢ Both coaches should avoid the Big East and Steve Spurrier.
O’Brien’s 1-5 mark vs. BCS opponents includes three losses to Big East teams â€” Louisville (2007), South Florida (2008), Rutgers (2008) â€” and two to Spurrier and South Carolina (2008 and 2009).
The lone win was against a Big East team, Pitt (2009).
All of Davis’ BCS wins are against Big East teams â€” UConn (2008 and 2009), Rutgers (2008) â€” or Notre Dame (2008).
But three of the losses are to Big East teams â€” USF (2007), West Virginia (2008), Pitt (2009) â€” and the other is to South Carolina (2007).
Of course, O’Brien at Boston College and Davis at Miami, both came from the Big East. And Spurrier, the former Duke coach, loves to beat UNC and State.
â€¢ Notes: State lost to Central Florida, from Conference USA, in 2007, which accounts for the missing nonconference loss from O’Brien’s record in the chart.
A couple of numbers that Giglio missed where Davis holds a clear lead over Oâ€™Brien:
- 12.5: The % of Cherokee Indian blood that â€˜Chiefâ€™ Butch Davis supposedly has running through his veins. (Must read link to more about the Chief)
- 1: The number of NCAA investigations