Vegas Odds on 2011 National Basketball Champion

While we’ve been spending some time providing you a lot of valuable information to help you craft realistic expectations for next basketball season some schools have a little more reason to be excited about next year.

This link will take you to some conversations focused on some preseason polls, and this link will take you to an article focused on Vegas’ view of the best of next year.

TIER 1: Duke (6:1), Michigan State (10:1), Purdue (12:1)

TIER 2: Kentucky (20:1), Villanova (20:1), Kansas (20:1), Ohio State (20:1)

TIER 3: Syracuse (25:1), Pittsburgh (25:1), Memphis (25:1), North Carolina (25:1), Butler (25:1), Florida (25:1), Illinois (25:1), Kansas State (25:1)

TIER 4: West Virginia (30:1), Texas (40:1), UConn (40:1), Louisville (40:1), Xavier (40:1), Georgetown (40:1), Wisconsin (40:1), Baylor (40:1)

TIER 5: UCLA (50:1), Tennessee (50:1), Gonzaga (60:1), Marquette (60:1), Missouri (60:1), Washington (75:1), BYU (75:1)

FWIW, NC State comes in at 100:1 along with all ‘other’ programs.

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College Basketball

16 Responses to Vegas Odds on 2011 National Basketball Champion

  1. PackMan97 06/01/2010 at 9:13 AM #

    TIER 3: North Carolina (25:1)

    Seriously? I know that Roy is the second coming of Christ…but this would require more than a miracle.

  2. ncstatered21 06/01/2010 at 11:05 AM #

    In response to UNC being up there:

    1. I’ve been watching and keeping up with this game long enough to know that the boys in Chapel Hell always are overrated.
    2. This is a Vegas Odds thing and truthfully I don’t think it means jack.
    3. Even if the Tar Holes are rated below the top 50, your still going to hear the commentators talk all about them saying “They could be a NCAA sleeper.” And all the blah crap. The only reason everyone talks about these guys all the time is because it gets the ratings.
    4. Their bangwagon is so big and overflowing that everyone from NC to Russia seems to be UNC fans. How many casual college basketball fans do you think were watching their national championship game and just decided they would start pulling for them? I think a lot. Personally, I don’t like bangwagon fans.

  3. TOB4PREZ 06/01/2010 at 11:11 AM #

    “so you’re telling me there’s a chance”??? YEAH!

    Lloyd

  4. bradleyb123 06/01/2010 at 11:24 AM #

    A big part of sports betting is how the oddsmakers THINK people will bet. It’s not always a pure exercise in true expectations. State has finished in the bottom three in the conference for the last four years. How could we possibly expect to get better odds than any of the “other” teams?

    If everybody THINKS a particular team will win the national championship, that will sway the odds on that team, regardless of what Vegas really thinks will happen. All they care about is the “juice”. They want equal betting on both sides of a game.

    If they made NC State 25:1 (like they did Carolina), nobody would take that bet. But people will take that bet for Carolina because of their history. Never mind that they were horrible last year, and lost several players, and have a young team. Personally, I think State has a better chance of winning it all than Carolina has. But State’s actual chances of winning it all don’t have much bearing on the odds, as long as Vegas knows most gamblers are not going to give us any credit.

    I’ve used this to my advantage before (back when I was a betting man!) I’ve bet for State when I knew the odds were skewed and had success. NC State has a pretty good track record of covering or beating the spread. That tells me the odds for or against us are almost always outta whack with reality. We just don’t get any respect (yet).

    If State makes it to the Sweet Sixteen or round of eight, watch what happens with our odds the FOLLOWING year. We have to win something before we’ll get any respect.

    Point being, don’t take the lousy odds as a credible indicator that we won’t be any good.

  5. bradleyb123 06/01/2010 at 11:30 AM #

    For some reason, my last two comments are awaiting moderation. Not sure what that’s about. Does this mean I typed some questionable word or something?

    No clue at what’s going on. I just approved the long post and deleted the shorter, abbreviated one.
    VaWolf82

  6. WolftownVA81 06/01/2010 at 12:46 PM #

    Beats the odds of winning the lottery but wouldn’t put any money on it.

  7. Packfan28 06/01/2010 at 12:51 PM #

    I found this little gem from last year. It brought a smile to my face:

    By Jason King, Yahoo! Sports
    Aug 21, 4:27 am EDT

    Here’s a look at the ACC power rankings heading into the 2009-10 school year:

    North Carolina – Even with the loss of Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington to the NBA, there’s no way the Tar Heels don’t repeat as conference champs. Ed Davis, Deon Thompson and Tyler Zeller give UNC one of the nation’s top frontcourts, and freshman forward John Henson is as talented as any recruit in the country. The biggest question mark is at point guard, where sophomore Larry Drew steps in for Lawson.

  8. rtpack24 06/01/2010 at 2:19 PM #

    Odds and point spreads are designed to make the betting 50/50 as bradleyb123 points out. Few years ago the year after Buddy Green went to Navy we played them and the spread was 10 (I think). My brother pointed it out to me and said Amato would run that score up as high as he could. I was going to Vegas so my brother gave me the money to bet on us. Sure nough we romped them, only bad part was I over slept and with early kick off I did not get the bet down.

  9. Alpha Wolf 06/01/2010 at 3:03 PM #

    Mental note: put down $10 on State winning next year.

    No, I don’t see it happening, but you never know. All you have to do is get in and get hot.

  10. Packfan28 06/01/2010 at 3:41 PM #

    In related news, Las Vegas has put the odds of yet another Calipari player found breaking NCAA rules at even money, and the odds of Caliparin being absolved of all blame at 1:1,000,000.

  11. wolfonthehill 06/01/2010 at 7:38 PM #

    Seriously, Alpha… I mean, most folks have $100 laying around if they REALLY had to scrape it up. Give up a golf game and post-golf dinner/drinks… put the $100 down on the Pack. Not likely, but for the possibility of walking away $10k richer in a year? Awfully tempting…

  12. coach13 06/02/2010 at 8:14 AM #

    So if I put a bill on the Pack, I win 10K?

  13. coach13 06/02/2010 at 8:17 AM #

    I was once a gambling man, I never bet on the Pack…I was always conflicted about it.

  14. wolfonthehill 06/02/2010 at 7:44 PM #

    Almost easier to bet AGAINST them. If we win, you’re happy… if we lose, it pays. It’s like arbitrage! :)

    And yeah – at 100-1… $10k…

  15. wolfpackdawg 06/02/2010 at 9:41 PM #

    It is revolting how UNC is always so overrated. I wish them nothing but the worst.

  16. Par Shooter 06/03/2010 at 11:26 AM #

    WOTH, that’s the emotional hedge that we’ve talked about many times while tailgating. But in the end State is so damned schizophrenic in all sports that you could never really bet confidently either way. After all these years, if somebody held a gun to my head and forced me to bet a Pack game I would always bet against us. Opponent, spread, etc. don’t matter. I’d bet against every time.

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